Is it possible that Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat may have reached a watershed and will finally take meaningful action to quell violence?
Analysts in the army and the intelligence community think so.
They believe that Arafat’s speech Sunday night just might be a turning point, representing his belated realization of just how precarious his position has become.
But Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon did not even deign to react . Sharon’s allies noted that Arafat has called for numerous other cease-fires that never materialized.
And just as has happened so many times before, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine announced this week they would not abide by Arafat’s call and once again urged all Palestinians to continue their war with Israel.
Within hours of the speech Sunday, Palestinian gunmen were again shooting at Israelis in the West Bank and firing mortars in the Gaza Strip. Sniper shootings continued throughout the week.
“Israel’s patience with empty words and false promises has run out,” Sharon told French President Jacques Chirac in a phone call Monday. “Israel wants to see actions and results.”
Just 10 days earlier, at Sharon’s behest, the Security Cabinet declared Arafat “irrelevant” and foreswore any dealings with him.
In their own defense, Palestinian officials said early in the week that they had shut dozens of Hamas and Islamic Jihad facilities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and arrested 180 activists.
But Sharon’s circle gave little credence to such claims, or to Arafat’s call for an end to violence.
Close aides say Sharon wants to resume negotiations with the Palestinians, but not with Arafat.
As Sharon sees it, Arafat made his strategic choice back in 1993, as soon as the Oslo peace process began. He doggedly built up illegal armed groups alongside the Palestinian Authority police force — which itself was allowed to grow far beyond its legal size — and stockpiled weapons for them.
These groups — like the Tanzim, the militia of Arafat’s Fatah Party — now are involved alongside Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a constant terror war against Israel. Elements of the Palestinian security forces, as well as Arafat’s Force 17 presidential guard, also take part, according to Israeli security.
Moreover, Sharon sees the continued violent activity of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as part of Arafat’s strategy. The fundamentalist factions are, in effect, active members in Arafat’s “coalition of terror,” Sharon says, a means of bleeding Israel while leaving Arafat ways to profess his innocence.
When Arafat went on TV Sunday, he spoke from his Ramallah office, with Israeli tanks parked about 300 yards away. Other Israel Defense Force units had entered Palestinian-controlled areas in the West Bank and Gaza over the weekend on search-and-arrest missions. Israeli helicopters continued to destroy security installations.
Perhaps even more sobering, from Arafat’s standpoint, was the fact that the United States did notpublicly criticize the Israeli military moves. It was as though Sharon had a green light from the Bush administration..
Worse yet, Arafat’s standing in the international community, which plummeted after a wave of suicide bombings in early December, showed no signs of recovery.
Even within the Arab world, Arafat could feel his isolation growing. Egypt and Jordan signaled that they, too, are fed up with Arafat’s prevarication and want to see action taken against terrorist groups.
For Egypt and Jordan, it is not just a matter of the peace process with Israel: The rise of Islamic fundamentalism can spill over, putting their regimes at risk.
With this kind of mood at the top in Israel, there is little time left for Arafat to prove to the rest of the world — above all to Washington — that this time he is serious. Knowledgeable sources said Arafat’s speech was sent to Washington for approval hours before it was recorded and broadcast.
As a result, this is a defining moment, both for Arafat and for the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations. Now Aradat will have to produce actions to convince the international community — if not Sharon — that this time he means business.