JERUSALEM — Relations between Israel and Hezbollah may be reaching a historic turning point: For one of the first times in the complicated relationship between Israel and the radical Shi’ite organization, it seems that Hezbollah has blinked first.
A few days ago, Hezbollah allowed a German mediator to visit kidnapped Israeli businessman Elhanan Tannenbaum, who is being held in Lebanon.
Despite its threats to kidnap Israeli soldiers to speed up negotiations for the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israel, Hezbollah gave in to the Israeli position that a precondition for negotiations was a sign that Tannenbaum was still alive.
In a speech three months ago, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, purposely was vague about Tannenbaum’s fate in an effort to keep Israel guessing — and to raise the value of a possible deal for information on the captured businessman.
Indeed, in the past, Nasrallah has demanded a high price — such as the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners and 12 Lebanese held in Israel, in exchange for information on missing Israelis believed held in Lebanon.
Eventually, however, Hezbollah was forced to deliver the information first, allowing German mediator Ernest Uhrlau to visit Tannenbaum. Uhrlau reported that the prisoner was in fair condition.
The Shi’ite militant group was immediately rewarded.
On Monday, Israel released the bodies of two Hezbollah fighters killed in south Lebanon in the late 1990’s, turning them over to the Red Cross in Lebanon.
All of a sudden, a deal with Hezbollah seemed more possible than ever before.
Israel is demanding the return of Tannenbaum and three soldiers kidnapped along the border three years ago, who Israel believes are dead. In exchange, Israel is offering to release 12 Lebanese prisoners, including Shi’ite activist Mustafa Dirani and Sheik Abdul Karim Obeid, one of the leaders of Hezbollah.
This is a breakthrough, said reserve Brig. Gen. Rafi Noi, former head of Israel’s northern command.
According to Noi, it is significant that Hezbollah made the first move this week, seeming just as eager to strike a deal as Israel.
Three factors led to the apparent change in Hezbollah’s attitude.
First, there is growing internal pressure: Families of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel are losing patience over Hezbollah’s failure to reach an agreement for the release of their relatives. The Shi’ite group is facing growing criticism that it needlessly escalates the conflict along Israel’s border at a time when Lebanon finally is recovering economically from years of war.
Second, there is increasing international pressure on Hezbollah: The war in Iraq and heavy American pressure on Syria and Iran sent a clear signal to Hezbollah that it no longer enjoys the automatic support of its two state sponsors.
Third, there is concern that escalating tensions or even just maintaining the status quo with Israel could jeopardize Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon.
But both Israel and Hezbollah are dancing on a tightrope.
Two weeks ago, relations seemed to reach a dangerous point when Hezbollah fired an anti-aircraft missile across the border. The rocket killed an Israeli youth in the town of Shlomi and forced residents of the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona into bomb shelters.
Thanks to tough Israeli warnings and American mediation, Hezbollah restrained itself from further action, and quiet has returned to Israel’s northern border.
“There is a new situation and Hezbollah faces new dilemmas,” Middle East expert Ya’acov Havakuk said. “The organization now realizes that the situation is more complex than in the past and that it cannot beat Israel.”