jerusalem | With Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip just six weeks away, escalating right-wing and settler protests threaten to plunge the country into anarchy and could provoke a strong anti-settler backlash.
Protesters last week blocked major highways, poured oil and scattered spikes across a busy road, occupied buildings in Gaza and stoned Palestinians and Israel Defense Forces soldiers. The army and police responded by temporarily declaring the Gaza Strip a closed military zone, ejecting the extremists from occupied buildings and making dozens of arrests.
In an unprecedented spate of interviews and public statements, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon condemned what he called the “hooliganism” of the far right, and vowed that he would not be deterred by it.
But will authorities be able to maintain law and order in the face of even more extreme protest plans?
Even if they do, Sharon faces other serious challenges: Right-wing soldiers have begun refusing to obey orders, a phenomenon that some fear will spread. There also is talk among rebels in Sharon’s own Likud Party of a move to replace him as prime minister with the more hawkish finance minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
On the other hand, there are signs that the settlers and other withdrawal opponents may have gone too far and seriously undermined their cause: The media is rife with angry anti-settler columns, and the latest polls show a dramatic increase in support for withdrawal.
The last week of June may prove to have been a turning point. The repeated blocking of traffic on major thoroughfares has incensed ordinary Israelis, and the cat-and-mouse games that anti-withdrawal teenagers played with police trying to keep the roads open have exasperated authorities.
But more devastating for the settler cause have been the images of violence: The near-lynch of an 18-year-old Palestinian by right-wing extremists, and an Israeli soldier who suffered a concussion after being hit by a large boulder.
Even worse for the settler cause was the realization of how far protesters are prepared to go: Oil and spikes on the highways could cause fatal accidents.
The oil and spikes prompted outspoken attacks on the protesters in the press. The most vehement came in Yediot Achronot from crime correspondent Boukie Naeh: “If the police don’t break your bones, I will,” he wrote.
A poll in last week’s Yediot Achronot seemed to mirror this sentiment: After a steady decline to 53 percent at the start of June, the poll showed support for the government’s withdrawal plan climbing back to 62 percent.
Another looming threat that could compound the manpower issue is soldiers refusing to carry out evacuation-related orders. Three soldiers already have refused to participate in withdrawal-related operations and have been sentenced to up to 56 days in jail.
Moreover, Orthodox soldiers, serving according to a special arrangement with their yeshivas, are asking to be exempted from having to evacuate settlers.
The key to the extent of the refusal phenomenon probably depends on influential rabbis. Some, such as Avraham Shapira, a former Israeli chief rabbi, have come out forcefully in favor of refusal. Others, such as Shlomo Aviner of the Beit El settlement, and Mordechai Elon, head of the Western Wall Yeshiva, are staunchly against any form of refusal, arguing that unity of the people must be preserved at all costs, and that unity within the IDF is crucial.
Despite all the opposition, Sharon is determined to go through with the withdrawal, scheduled to begin Aug. 15. As bad as they might get, the demonstrations and protests are unlikely to deter him.
One thing that could still stop him would be a coup in the Likud to oust Sharon and install Netanyahu in his place.
Indeed, Netanyahu’s moves will be crucial. He is under pressure from the far right to put himself at the head of the Likud rebels and move to topple Sharon. But, as a would-be prime minister himself, Netanyahu needs to be careful not to ally himself too closely with the far right.