tel aviv | For months, dark warnings had swirled that Israeli soldiers charged with removing Jews from their homes in Gaza Strip settlements slated for evacuation might refuse orders.

Others said refusal, which threatens to erode the basic underpinnings of the army’s role in a democratic state, was nearly inconceivable.

And then came Avi Bieber, an immigrant from New Jersey who was captured last month on national television saying no to his commanders.

The dramatic footage of the red-faced Bieber, 19, refusing to evacuate settlers who had illegally taken over houses on the southern Gaza beachfront — “A Jew does not expel a Jew,” he declared — gave the entire country pause, wondering if his actions might presage more refusals ahead.

Founded to protect the Jewish state, the army has served throughout Israel’s history as a unifying force; men and women from across the political, religious and social spectrums are drafted and serve together.

But now there is growing concern that an unprecedented wave of refusals to obey orders may be at hand when the army goes in to remove some 8,500 Jewish settlers from Gaza and West Bank during withdrawals slated to begin in mid-August.

The situation was only expected to intensify as Israel declared Gaza settlements off-limits to outsiders ahead of their evacuation. The 21 settlements became a closed military zone under an order signed this week by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, meaning that only residents and visitors with army-issued permits are allowed to enter. The order is expected to remain in force through the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank, slated for next month.

Political and religious divisions are growing starker within the military, as religious soldiers make up ever-larger numbers of the elite combat units and officers corps.

The army’s new chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, meeting with soldiers in the Gaza Strip, warned that refusing orders would carry severe consequences.

“We can feel pain, we can think over our actions, we can weep — but you must carry out orders,” Halutz said. “There will be zero tolerance” for refusal.

Until recently, conscientious objection in Israel has largely been associated with the left.

In 2002, a letter was published bearing the signatures of 50 army reserve officers — hundreds more later added their names — declaring that they would no longer serve in the West Bank or Gaza Strip and that such service does not help to defend Israel but only perpetuates “our control over the Palestinian people.”

Twenty-seven Air Force pilots said in 2003 that they would refuse to take part in raids on Palestinian civilian population centers, after Israel’s assassinations of terrorist kingpins also killed innocent civilians.

Pundits wondered if the floodgates of conscientious objection were about to open — but in both cases, the specter of mass refusal turned out to be overblown.

As the Gaza withdrawal nears, it’s impossible to predict how many soldiers will refuse orders. What emerges may not be clear-cut refusal but rather a failure to report for duty, especially among reserve soldiers.

According to Yoav Livnat, spokesman for Homat Magen — an organization formed to encourage refusal to carry out evacuation orders — some 20,000 reservists have signed a document stating their intention to disobey such commands.

Livnat, the brother of Education Minister Limor Livnat, said he hopes that such a display of defiance will help derail the evacuation effort.

“We do not think that the existence of the refuseniks will stop the process in itself but will contribute to an overall weakening of the army that will make it difficult for the army to carry out its orders,” he said.

The army says it won’t take insubordination lightly. Bieber, for example, was sentenced to 56 days in a military prison.

In the West Bank settlement of Tekoa, where Bieber’s family lives, his actions were celebrated. In fact, he has become something of a hero of the anti-withdrawal movement.

Yair Orbach heads Yom Pekudah, an organization made up of religious Zionist men who serve in the army and are opposed to refusal. Orbach and other members of the organization are not in favor of the withdrawal plan, but they are traveling the country warning of the dangers of refusing orders.

“We say that if we refuse orders, we’re destroying our society,” Orbach said. “If someone refuses this order, another day there will be a different order that they refuse, and there will be no end to the cycle.”

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