With Israel’s Gaza pullout under way, American Jewish groups on the right and left are reassessing their successes and failures — and planning for the battles ahead.
Few observers expect those fights to come anytime soon; Palestinian elections in January and the likelihood of early elections in Israel point to a grace period while both sides adjust to the radical shift in the region.
But across the political spectrum, there is an understanding that the kind of extended cooling off period favored by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is unrealistic, and that new skirmishes over future Israeli withdrawals can’t be put off indefinitely.
On the right, groups such as the Zionist Organization of America and Americans for a Safe Israel waged a fierce but ultimately unsuccessful battle against what they said was a sellout to a treacherous Palestinian Authority.
Their arguments never gained much traction with the Jewish public, which either supported the pullout or was reluctant to criticize a decision by an elected prime minister with unimpeachable security credentials.
They were also conspicuously unsuccessful on Capitol Hill. Politicians who were willing to go before Jewish groups and slam the Palestinians and defend the occupation suddenly became mute when asked to denounce Sharon’s Gaza pullout and defy a powerful president of their own party.
Groups on the right have been touting their newfound Capitol Hill power. But power becomes real only when put to the test; on the Gaza withdrawal, they came up short as their new friends dove for cover.
Leaders of these groups say the past year’s efforts strengthened the alliance between Jewish and Christian conservatives, which could pay off if the Bush administration or its successor decides to pressure Israel to make new concessions or to stop settlement activity.
But few major evangelical leaders openly confronted the president over Gaza. And that alliance could also further estrange these Jewish groups from the community’s mainstream, which sees many of the newly active Christian Zionists as domestic adversaries and, in some cases, apocalypse-minded religious fanatics.
The American Jewish right also lost ground when many potentially sympathetic Jews were turned off by the actions of radical anti-pullout forces in Israel. Sympathy for settlers uprooted by the same government that brought them to Gaza is one thing, supporting those who invoked death curses on Sharon is something very different.
But the withdrawal opponents here and in Israel succeeded in one critical goal; they created a political and social uproar in the Jewish state that could make Sharon and his successors much warier about new unilateral withdrawals.
Leaders on the right say they will refocus their attention on opposition to the road map to counter the expected European and Arab pressure to move forward quickly on the plan.
The right fully expects the Gaza pullout to produce new Palestinian terrorism, and plans to use that to make the case that creating a Palestinian state would be reckless folly.
On Capitol Hill, they will focus on limiting new aid to the authority; unless the Bush administration reverses its recent timidity in aid fights, they may succeed.
The Jewish left was less conspicuous as the Gaza debate began — in part because of ambivalence about a plan imposed by Israeli fiat, not negotiations, and a suspicion that Sharon was pulling out of Gaza as a way of solidifying Israel’s hold on big areas of the West Bank.
But their support for Sharon became more active as the Gaza plan became a battle between the rejectionist right and the pragmatic center in Israel, a battle the left couldn’t afford to ignore.
They had only limited success in pressing mainstream pro-Israel groups to more vocally support Sharon’s Gaza policy. But by supporting Sharon, a man they once loathed, they helped foster the view in this country that the Gaza pullout was more than a trick by the wily Sharon to reinforce West Bank settlement.
When the pullout is complete, pro-peace process groups will focus on several issues: urging U.S. pressure on both Israel and the Palestinians to jump-start the road map; supporting policies seen as helping Abbas establish order and improve the economic condition of the Palestinians, including additional U.S. aid; and pressing for sustained, high-level U.S. mediation, possibly including appointment of a special envoy.
They will argue that the momentum created by the Gaza pullout will be squandered without a major new U.S. diplomatic push.
But their efforts will falter if the Gaza withdrawal is followed by new terrorism, or if Abbas loses control of Gaza and Hamas emerges triumphant. And they are likely to face an administration beset with other crises, with little interest in plunging into the risky waters of Mideast mediation.
Groups on the left started with a big advantage: A solid majority of American Jews continue to support an active peace process aimed at the ultimate end of the occupation. But they were never able to generate a feeling of optimism about the Gaza plan and its impact — possibly because they were not very optimistic themselves.
James D. Besser is a Washington-based correspondent for Jewish newspapers across the country.