Israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination in Dubai of top Hamas arms smuggler Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, but the killing might be compromising Israel’s effort to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
That’s because one of the key figures behind that effort, Mossad chief Meir Dagan, is coming under heavy criticism for the sloppy operation in Dubai.
Assuming that Israel was behind the Dubai hit, some Israeli analysts are calling for Dagan’s ouster. They say the Mossad has adopted an irresponsible, trigger-happy approach to fighting terrorism, and they point to the diplomatic imbroglio facing Israel for the use of fake passports by alleged members of the hit squad.
Two weeks after Dubai authorities identified 11 suspects accused of using fake British and Irish passports in the names of European citizens now living in Israel, on Feb. 24 they added 15 more suspects (10 men and five women traveling on British, French, Irish and Australian passports) to the list. The additions added a new wrinkle: Two of the suspects allegedly left Dubai on a ship bound for Iran after an alleged reconnaissance trip in August.
European Union foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels Feb. 22, condemned the use of the forged British and Irish passports in the operation. Although the ministers’ statement did not directly accuse Israel of the assassination, the condemnation was meant to increase pressure on Israel.
How will such pressure affect Dagan, whose tenure at the Mossad is up for renewal at the end of the year?
Dagan’s defenders point to the long list of Mossad achievements in the war on terrorism and the campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, and argue that his tenure at the intelligence agency should be extended for an unprecedented fourth time. They insist that his knowledge of the Iranian theater is unmatched, and that as the clock reaches zero hour on the Iranian nuclear threat, his input will be invaluable — and not only for Israel.
Under Dagan, the Mossad has had just two priorities: delaying Iran’s nuclear program and counter-terrorism.
“The list must be short. If we continue pretending we can do everything, in the end we won’t do anything,” Dagan was quoted as saying when he was appointed by then–Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2002.
Sharon reportedly told Dagan to run the agency “with a knife between its teeth.”
The main focus of his tenure has been Iran. Soon after Dagan took over the Mossad, the agency reportedly passed on information to the United States and others that the rogue Pakistani nuclear dealer Abdel Qadir Khan was helping the Iranians build a uranium enrichment facility.
Since then, a string of unexplained accidents has afflicted the Iranian nuclear project: scientists have disappeared, laboratories have caught fire, aircraft have crashed and whole batches of equipment have proved faulty.
In 2007, Israeli intelligence detected work on a secret nuclear program in Syria, and in September of that year Israeli planes bombed the site of a North Korea–style reactor the Syrians were building.
The Mossad also was credited for the discovery of a hidden Iranian enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom last September — a find that finally convinced even previously skeptical international observers that Iran indeed was conducting a clandestine nuclear weapons program.
Although the Mossad has not claimed credit for any of this, regional players have little doubt as to who has been behind the killings, the accidents and the pinpoint intelligence.
Egypt’s Al-Ahram daily ran an article last month calling Dagan Israel’s Superman and claiming that he almost single-handedly has delayed the Iranian bomb.
Few criticize Dagan’s actions on Iran, but some question his derring-do tactics on terrorism as reflected in the Dubai operation. They argue that his risk-taking could cost Israel diplomatically and provoke heavy terrorist retaliation. His critics also contend that taking out top terrorists is a dubious proposition: Often their replacements are even more dangerous.
Dagan’s eight years at the helm have seen several targeted killings of top Hezbollah and Hamas operatives in Beirut and Damascus attributed to the Mossad. And late last year, the Mossad, although it never acknowledged any involvement, seemed to step up its activities.
In early December, a bus carrying Hamas members and Iranian officials exploded outside Damascus. Two weeks later, two Hamas members were killed in a mysterious bombing in the heart of Hezbollah’s Dahiya stronghold in southern Beirut. Last month, an Iranian nuclear scientist died in a bombing outside his home in Tehran. A week later, al-Mabhouh was found dead in his Dubai hotel room.
In the wake of the al-Mabhouh killing, Hamas this week asked the EU to include Israel on a list of countries that support terrorism, and the Sunday Times in Britain, citing “sources with knowledge of Mossad,” reported Feb. 21 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with members of a Mossad hit squad and approved of the assassination mission.
“Many false accusations are made against Israel on numerous issues, and there is a general Arab tendency to blame Israel for everything,” Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was quoted as saying Feb. 22. “If evidence to the contrary would have been presented, other than in media reports, we would comment. Since such evidence doesn’t exist, there is no need to comment.”
Dagan has pulled off some major intelligence coups in the war on terror, and his advice on Iran over the coming months will carry considerable weight. He seems to think there is still time for actions other than a full-scale military operation.
If and when it comes to that, however, chances are that despite the Dubai incident, Netanyahu, one of Dagan’s staunchest admirers, will want Dagan at his side helping to plan it.
Additional reporters for JTA contributed to this report.