For the second time in two months, the Israeli political universe was upended this week when Shaul Mofaz’s Kadima Party voted to quit Israel’s governing coalition.
Kadima’s departure, the result of a breakdown in negotiations over reforming Israel’s military draft law to include haredi Orthodox Jews, shatters the 94-seat super-majority that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu controlled in the 120-seat Knesset.
It also raises questions about the future of Kadima, Israel’s draft and the timing of new elections.
While the loss of Kadima’s 28 seats still leaves Netanyahu’s coalition with the majority it needs to govern, Netanyahu is more likely to move up Israel’s next elections, now scheduled for the fall of 2013.
Netanyahu had been set to dissolve the Knesset and call for new elections nine weeks ago when Mofaz stunned the Israeli political establishment by bringing Kadima, Israel’s main opposition party, into the governing coalition. The move was seen as a gambit by Mofaz, who had won Kadima’s leadership several weeks earlier, to stave off elections in which Kadima was expected to lose significant ground.
For Netanyahu, the coalition deal was a way both to hobble the opposition and give him more leeway in formulating a new military draft law. In February, Israel’s Supreme Court struck down the current draft regulation, called the Tal Law, which excuses haredi Orthodox from universal mandatory military service. The court ordered that a new law be enacted by Aug. 1 or else all Israeli Jews would be subject to the draft.
Netanyahu’s other coalition partners include haredi Orthodox parties that oppose drafting large numbers of haredi men or requiring them to do national service.
The debate over the new draft law has roiled Israel in recent weeks. Many Israelis long have resented what they see as the free ride given to haredi Israelis, who are not required to serve in the army but are still
eligible for state welfare benefits.
In the end it was Kadima that quit the government in protest over proposed reforms that it said did not go far enough.
At a news conference July 17 announcing Kadima’s decision to leave the government, Mofaz said he had rejected Netanyahu’s proposal of deferring national service for haredi men until age 26; Kadima wanted the draft deferral to end at age 22.
“It is with deep regret that I say that there is no choice but to decide to leave the government,” Mofaz told a closed-door meeting of Kadima, according to the Israeli news website Ynet. Only three of Kadima’s 28 members voted in favor of staying in the coalition.
“Netanyahu has chosen to side with the draft-dodgers,” Mofaz told reporters after the meeting, according to Ha’aretz.
With just two weeks to go before the Tal Law expires, it’s not clear where Kadima’s departure leaves the future of Israel’s military draft.
What seems certain is that Kadima has been weakened by the episode. Two months ago, polls showed Kadima stood to lose two-thirds of its Knesset seats in new elections. Government opponents harshly criticized Mofaz when he then decided to hitch his centrist party to Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party.
“Unfortunately, everything I warned about two months ago and everything I expected to happen, happened,” said Haim Ramon, a Knesset member who quit Kadima when Mofaz joined the government. “Netanyahu’s allies are the haredim and the settlers. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding himself and the public. This move has brought on Kadima’s demise and Shaul Mofaz is the one accountable,” Ramon said, according to Ynet.
If new elections were held today, Kadima likely would implode, with the biggest chunk of its seats going to Likud (Kadima originally was created as an offshoot of Likud) and others to a new centrist party, Yesh Atid, or to left-wing parties.
For now, analysts are predicting that Netanyahu will call for new elections in early 2013.