An Israeli expert on Israeli-Palestinian relations predicts Yasser Arafat will stick to his word: He will declare a Palestinian state.
When that will happen is still up in the air.
How statehood is proclaimed is actually the critical issue, Professor Asher Susser, a senior fellow and former head at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, said last week in San Francisco.
“It depends on how he declares it, whether Israel is in agreement with him about the declaration,” he added. “It can be less confrontational or more confrontational.”
The Fulbright fellow said that what will happen may depend mainly on “what Arafat has in mind” and precisely what his declaration of independence would include.
The declaration, originally scheduled for mid-September, became a questionable issue again Sunday when Arafat gave a rabble-rousing speech that included the notion he might declare Palestinian statehood within weeks.
According to the Associated Press, Arafat declared, “Palestine is ours, ours, ours!”
Susser, who was in San Francisco for a series of lectures on behalf of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, probably wouldn’t find Arafat’s stance surprising. The Palestinian leader has made similar statements before.
Susser explained that it would be easier for Israel to accept if Arafat doesn’t demand borders that date to the Six Day War and include a divided Jerusalem.
If Israel and the Palestinians cannot agree before Arafat’s declaration, according to Susser, “it could pave the way for a confrontation between [them] over who controls what, exactly, in the West Bank.”
The Jewish settlers might also become a problem, he said.
After Arafat’s provocative Sunday speech, Israeli military officials repeated their threat to retaliate with force if he declared statehood independently.
Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz, Israeli Army chief, had warned that his forces would use helicopters and tanks to quash riots, if any disturbances occurred after such a declaration.
“Anyone who hurts Israeli soldiers will be hurt,” he said in press reports.
Prior to the fiery exchange of words, Susser had contended that Israel is not seeking violence.
Arafat long has maintained that Palestinians would have a right to declare independence once the Sept. 13 deadline for reaching a treaty had expired — whether or not a pact has been agreed upon.
Susser, author and editor of several books on Israeli-Palestinian relations, said he “would be surprised if by the 13th of September all issues that are open for negotiation on the final agreement would indeed be agreed upon.”
Certain issues will take much longer, he said.
“The problems are too difficult to resolve all at once, because the gaps on every issue are so wide.
“We should expect to see a series of interim agreements rather than one major historic agreement that will solve all problems. [There] will probably be a protracted negotiation over the course of a period of time beyond Sept. 13.”
For example, it is likely Jewish settlements will have to be evacuated or remain under Palestinian sovereignty. Susser feels that from the point of view of the settlers, both are unwelcome choices.
But “there are very many small settlements spread all over the West Bank that Israel may have to abandon. That would mean abandoning quite a lot of settlements but not many settlers.”