Backlash? What backlash?
According to demographer Gary Tobin, a recent study shows the American public’s support of the U.S.-Israeli relationship has not withered in the days and weeks following Sept. 11, as many Jews worried it would.
A report was released last week by Tobin’s S.F.-based Institute for Jewish and Community Research, reviewing data amassed by 13 separate national polls, including two of its own, taken between Sept. 13 and Oct. 31. In the report, Tobin dismisses the notion of an anti-Israel backlash, claiming American support for the Jewish state has actually grown in the past few months.
Jews are “concerned that somehow U.S. support for Israel is wavering or that the American public will blame Israel and the Jews. These data show that if there’s going to be a villain in American society, it’s not going to be the Jews. It’s going to be Arab terrorists,” said Tobin, a former Brandeis University professor.
“So any fear the American Jewish community had that Sept. 11 would negatively affect Israel is simply not borne out by the data. The major finding is that support for Israel has gone up.”
Among the study’s major points:
*93 percent of Americans support full cooperation between the United States and Israel in combating terrorism.
*Between 51 and 55 percent of Americans sympathize with Israel more than with the Palestinians, while 8 to 14 percent sympathize more with the Palestinians — a disparity that appears to have grown since the attacks.
*Only 33 to 38 percent support the establishment of a Palestinian state, and 62 percent feel that doing so “would encourage terrorism.”
The Palestinian Authority comes out as the big loser in recent polls, according to Tobin. A full 54 percent of Americans believe the authority and its president, Yasser Arafat, “support terrorism in any way,” while 48 percent feel they “have ties with the international terrorist organizations responsible for the attacks on the U.S.”
When asked whether the TV images of Palestinians dancing in the streets or Arafat’s subsequent apology best represent the feelings of most Palestinians about the Sept. 11 attacks, only 34 percent of those surveyed believed Arafat, while 52 percent selected the celebrants.
“There has been an almost absolute drop in support for the Palestinians; some polls have gone down to nearly zero,” said Tobin. This is “largely because Americans now associate Arafat with both terrorism in general, and, for nearly half, specifically with the terrorists who attacked the U.S. This is pretty damning.”
In recent months, several media outlets have reported numbers supposedly demonstrating an American backlash against Israel. Tobin claims the media misrepresented the data.
While in one poll, 22 percent of those surveyed felt America’s support of Israel was the major reason for the attacks, 26 percent of respondents in the same poll felt “our democracy and freedom” were to blame.
Even if — as one poll found — 58 percent of Americans believe U.S.-Israeli relations and the Palestinian situation were major reasons for the attacks (but not the only reason), other polls found 70 percent of respondents felt the United States is doing enough to improve its image among Arabs and Muslims worldwide. In addition, 63 percent felt the attacks would have occurred regardless of America’s support of Israel.
What’s more, MSNBC.com reported a decline in support for Israel based on a 3 percent drop in a three-week period — despite the fact that the poll’s margin for error was greater than 3 percent.
“This has no statistical meaning whatsoever,” said Tobin. “So if MSNBC.com reports that there’s a decline in those who believe the U.S.-Israel relationship should be closer, that is statistical garbage and an absolute misreporting of the data.”
For Israeli Vice Consul Gil Lanier, Tobin’s findings were reassuring but not surprising.
“Going over the numbers, I can say that, yes, it clearly shows that, again, we have an alliance. The friendship is there, between the people of the countries, not just the governments. This is gratifying,” said Lanier, who is based in San Francisco.
“I think people, as the polls show, are mature and educated enough to know to separate the myths from the facts. Osama bin Laden discovered the Palestinian people only on Sept. 12, if you will.”
Tobin, meanwhile, feels that when it comes to backlashes, it’s the Palestinians who should be worried, not Israelis.
“My feeling is that the American public will never forget the images of Palestinians dancing in the street, ever,” he said. “I don’t think the American public could ever distinguish between good terrorism and bad terrorism. As long as the P.A. engages in any sort of violence, they’re on the bad-guy list.”