Yasser Arafat is getting out of jail free, thanks to some arm twisting by President Bush, who in turn had his appendages rotated by his father and the leader of Saudi Arabia.
Crown Prince Abdullah flew — no female air traffic controllers, please — to Texas to be entertained last weekend by the current President Bush at his ranch and his old friend the first President Bush in Houston.
The leader of one of the most intolerant, repressive and corrupt regimes on earth complained to the leader of the world’s greatest democracy that Jews have too much influence over American foreign policy. The prince warned of “grave consequences” unless the administration did more to “restrain Israel.”
It was something the senior Bush had said himself a decade earlier.
Jewish leaders on the right who were in danger of growing over-confident of the current president’s support for Israel are asking whether this represents a turning point in the relationship, and the dormant peace camp is questioning whether it might be time to come out of hiding.
After Arafat’s victory in Crawford, Texas, there is no reason to expect he will be any more willing to make peace than he was at Camp David two years ago, at Taba last year or since. In fact, he has less incentive today.
Instead he will look to Bush and Abdullah to deliver Israel for him.
Arafat won his freedom from house arrest in Ramallah without lifting a finger, and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is the one posting bail.
After weeks of demanding that Arafat turn over wanted terrorists holed up with him in Ramallah, Sharon retreated when Washington turned the screws.
Bush softened up Sharon by pressing Congress to shelve a resolution declaring solidarity with Israel, and shelving $200 million in anti-terrorism aid promised to Israel.
Then he phoned Sharon and told him to let Arafat go; the wanted men would stay in Palestinian hands but with American and British guards.
What did Sharon get?
He got an invitation to visit Bush at the White House next month, but not the ranch.
He got more tsuris from his political right, where critics wasted no time in saying he’d “gone nuts,” and he can expect his rival for party leadership, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to tell Likud loyalists he’d been calling for Arafat’s exile while Sharon set the old terrorist free.
All he needs now is a souvenir that says, “My army went to Ramallah and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.”
Sharon blundered when he declared Arafat irrelevant and then made him the focus of the West Bank operation by isolating him in Ramallah where he could play his favorite role for all the world to watch — the professional victim. That only made Arafat more relevant than he has been in years, boosting his influence and popularity, and uniting Arab leaders behind a colleague most can’t tolerate.
Sharon’s incarceration of Arafat diverted attention from the real mission of the army and handed Israel another wholly unnecessary PR black eye.
What did Arafat get?
He got rescued from his arch-nemesis by the leaders of the United States and Saudi Arabia.
He had to give nothing, just sit around for interviews, kiss visitors, make phone calls and enjoy center stage.
He won a little-noticed major concession from Israel that he long demanded — and Sharon opposed: the introduction of foreign forces in the guise of British and American jail monitors, a precedent Arafat will try to parlay into an international “peacekeeping” force.
He also got another “last chance” to prove his commitment to living in peace with Israel, which he will ignore like all the others.
There was the usual Bush demand to renounce terrorism and crack down on the extremists, which he will safely ignore
And he got the pleasure of seeing Sharon be the one to give in.
Abdullah does not go away empty-handed, either.
He did what no other Arab leader has been able to achieve: He got Bush to block two pieces of pro-Israel legislation, force Sharon to back down and rescue Arafat. That should boost him in his rivalries for leadership of the moderate Arab world.
Abdullah put on a remarkable show of muscle flexing, demonstrating his clout with the Bush family. Saudi officials made it clear before heading home that they still expect much more from the administration.
They gave no indication they intend to use their IOU with Arafat to get him to crack down on the violence. Abdullah has called suicide bombings legitimate resistance to Israeli occupation, which he has branded the real terrorism. His foreign minister admitted that the kingdom is sending money to families of suicide bombers, as is Saddam Hussein, but insisted it is “completely humanitarian” and said his country “should be praised” for its generosity to families that had lost a loved one.
Bush’s leadership is facing a crucial test.
He looked foolish when he announced he had secured Abdullah’s promise not to use the oil weapon. The Saudis were bluffing when they leaked that threat to The New York Times, and the president knew it. They tried it in 1973 and still haven’t recovered from that PR and economic disaster. Bush’s announcement only revealed how little the Saudis were offering while demanding — and getting — so much.
Bush is the one most responsible for freeing Arafat and if — more likely when — there is another major terrorist attack, he will have to do far more than chastise Arafat again. His credibility in that arena is depleted.
Bush may have soothed the Saudis, but ultimately his standing as a Mideast player will depend on his willingness to stand up to the hypocritical Saudis — whose society produced 15 of the 19 Sept. 11 suicide bombers, who helped bankroll Al-Qaida and the Taliban, and who continue to finance Hamas and other terror groups.
The recent drop in Bush’s approval ratings has been attributed to public perceptions of his indecisiveness in the Middle East, and since he has no clout with the Palestinians and is clearly unwilling to stand up to the Saudis, he turned toward Israel.
That may not sit well with top GOP conservatives, who have accused him of losing his moral compass in the war against terror by protecting Arafat and holding Israel to a different standard in its anti-terror battles from the one we hold ourselves to. It also will not help Bush in the Jewish community at a time when the GOP is expecting its outspoken support of Israel to help win converts to its side.