WASHINGTON — Despite a widespread consensus that U.S. action against Iraq would affect Israel, the question remains: Would such action help or harm the Jewish state?
President Bush’s speech Sept. 12 at the United Nations General Assembly made no reference to Israel, but any action the United States takes is expected to fuel a counter-attack by Iraq on Israel.
Some have argued that the debate itself might prompt Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to launch a pre-emptive attack, and Israel would be the probable target.
But despite concerns about the repercussions, Israel has aligned itself with the White House, even as it has kept a relatively low profile on the issue.
When Iraq announced Monday that it would agree to renewed arms inspections, Israeli officials hinted that they agreed with the Bush administration’s view that Saddam is stalling — and that inspections alone would not suffice.
“The United States’ commitment is far-reaching, very clear, and I almost don’t see how it will retreat from it,” Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres told Israel Radio from New York on Tuesday.
Just hours after Bush delivered his speech last week, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on Capitol Hill, telling lawmakers that the world needed to act before additional attacks are carried out against Israel and other U.S. interests.
A strong supporter of U.S. actions against Iraq, he said he believes that despite the short-term consequences for his country, a mission against Saddam could prevent a mass casualty attack.
“We support this pre-emptive American action even though we stand on the front lines, while others criticize it as they sit comfortably on the sidelines,” he told the House of Representatives’ Government Reform Committee
“But we know that their sense of comfort is an illusion, for if action is not taken now, we will all be threatened by a much greater peril.”
He also said the United States should help Israel prepare for a possible Iraqi retaliation by helping to provide “all means of civil defense,” such as smallpox vaccinations.
“Israel is the most likely target,” he said. “It must be protected.”
Indeed, last week Iraq publicly threatened Israel with a “profound and an unforgettable strike” if it takes part in a U.S. attack on Baghdad.
Iraqi Trade Minister Mohammed Mahdi Saleh made the threat in remarks to the United Arab Emirates’ newspaper Al-Khaleej.
Peres also said last Friday that Israel is willing to accept the risk that Iraq would respond to a U.S. attack by launching missiles against Israel.
“By running away from what should be done, you solve nothing and you make the situation worse,” Peres told a Washington gathering sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. Leaving Saddam unchecked “is maybe to make the same mistake as taken by Europe in 1939 in the face of the emergence of Hitler.”
Netanyahu said that while he is not certain that Israel would be attacked by Iraq if the United States does not act first, U.S. action is necessary.
“You have to connect the dots,” he said, pointing to Saddam’s work to accumulate weapons of mass destruction and the propensity he has shown to use them.
Meanwhile, Israeli media continued to carry reports on civil defense preparations in the event of an Iraqi attack on Israel.
The Israeli daily Yediot Achronot reported Tuesday that security officials were slated to decide whether to instruct gas mask factories to accelerate production to meet an anticipated shortage of 600,000 kits.
Critics of the U.S. actions against Iraq argue that, in addition to casualties that Israel would likely face from reprisal attacks, Israel’s entrance into the conflict could have damaging consequences.
While Israel, under strong pressure from the United States, did not retaliate for Iraqi attacks on the country in the 1991 Gulf War, numerous Israeli officials have said Israel would not hold its fire this time around.
In particular, any use of nuclear weapons by the Jewish state in a retaliatory attack could have dire consequences.
“There are consequences for Israel and the world that follows such a war, even if Saddam is removed,” said Henry Siegman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
“There will be lasting consequences that make, as far as the eye can see, establishing normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab and Islamic world more difficult.”
Others worry that the United States has not made clear its end game, and has not specified what it expects to implement in Iraq once Saddam’s regime is defeated.
A regime that follows Saddam could even have a closer link to terrorism, some have argued.
At the same time, supporters of Bush’s policy say a regime change in Iraq could lead to progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
They point to the Madrid Conference, which launched the Oslo peace process and came as a result of the Gulf War.
“American success in Iraq is likely to open the door for real reforms to take place” in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, said one senior official with a Jewish organization.
“The defeat of Saddam, someone who is aiding and abetting terrorism, has a profound influence.”
American Jewish leaders point to Saddam’s monetary support for the Palestinian Authority and the families of suicide bombers, and argue that Iraq’s defeat would send a strong statement to Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat and other regimes that sponsor terrorism.
“It can only help,” said Morton Klein, national president of the Zionist Organization of America. “Terror regimes like Arafat’s will be frightened that they will be next and will be less successful in terrorism.”
But an Israeli official said there is no direct link between Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“The Iraqi threat is a real threat, no matter what is the consequences with the Palestinians,” the official said. “The case of Iraq should be judged on the merits of the threat, regardless of the background noise.”
Despite the concerns over Israel, American Jewish leaders say their interest is the bigger picture.
“As much as we love Israel, this is not the issue,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “I don’t think the American Jewish community views the Iraq issue solely through Israeli glasses.”
Foxman said he believes American Jewish support will come predominantly because action against Iraq follows three positions that the Jewish community shares with the Bush administration — support for the international coalition against terrorism, fear of weapons of mass destruction and the need for pre-emptive action to contain those threats.