jerusalem | The withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank may be a catalyst for a breakthrough in Israel’s diplomatic status — but it also could cost Prime Minister Ariel Sharon his job.
Sharon has never been more popular in the international community, and his bold Gaza withdrawal seems likely to produce diplomatic dividends for Israel.
In his own Likud Party, however, many see the move as a betrayal of party values and of Sharon’s electoral commitments.
Next week Sharon will visit the United Nations for the opening of the General Assembly in New York, where dozens of world leaders are expected to congratulate him on the pullout. He will meet with President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, among others.
When he gets back, he will have little more than a week to prepare for a crucial showdown with former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who resigned last month as finance minister and now is challenging Sharon for the Likud leadership and the premiership.
On Sept. 26, the party’s Central Committee is due to vote on a date for a leadership primary. If Sharon loses, he could well lead a breakaway faction of the party, a political adventure that could backfire and cost him the premiership.
The Bush administration is aware of Sharon’s domestic difficulties. Bush recently sent two clear messages designed to help Sharon — one telling the Palestinians that the next move is up to them, and the other to the Europeans urging them not to complicate Sharon’s position by pressuring him for additional concessions.
The administration wants to see the Palestinians take full control of Gaza, set up what Bush calls a “working government” and dismantle terrorist militias. As for the Europeans and other U.S. allies, a senior American official said that when Sharon comes to the United Nations, the message “should be one of congratulations, not one of new pressures.”
On a visit to Israel immediately after the pullout, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, summed up the mood: “Sharon had the courage to make the decision, which was implemented in a highly professional manner,” he said.
He added that the parties now should do all they can not to lose the momentum Sharon created.
The immediate issue between Sharon and Netanyahu is over when the leadership primary takes place. Netanyahu wants it in November, Sharon next April or May.
Likud Cabinet ministers who don’t want to see their party torn apart are proposing a compromise they hope will keep both Sharon and Netanyahu in the Likud: a leadership primary in February, provided that both men promise to stay in the Likud even if they lose.
For now, both Sharon and Netanyahu reject the compromise. Sharon will not commit to staying in the Likud because he knows that his veiled threat to leave — which could cost the party well over a dozen seats in the Knesset — is his trump card.