It is too early to tell whether the Gaza Strip will fall prey to jihadist-Hamas rule, becoming an Iranian-like offshoot near the heart of Israel, a den of violence and terror — or, hopefully, whether it will be run by the Palestinian Authority with some sense of responsibility for the long-suffering people of this overpopulated piece of land.
Indeed, any observer will conclude that Gaza’s future will determine, to a large extent, the future of the whole Middle East. A peaceful Gaza will be condusive to more Israeli withdrawals; a jihadist Gaza will ensure that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza will be the last one.
Indeed, if Gaza becomes a lawless mirror of Hezbollah-controlled south Lebanon, not only Israelis and the people of Gaza will suffer from the ensuing violence, but Egypt as well will be harmed in its struggle against fundamentalists and Europe will be exposed to a new flood of Palestinian refugees fleeing from hell to the European paradise.
But even if the Palestinian Authority succeeds in governing the Gaza Strip, and even if the will to coexist with Israel replaces suicidal fanaticism, the economic problems of Gaza seem to be insurmountable. The Palestinians — and Israelis — will face three possible solutions to these problems.
The first solution is to turn Gaza into a social case, ever dependent on the kindness of strangers — i.e. the charity and aid of the world community.
This is a totally unrealistic scenario. True, an international effort must be made to rehabilitate the ruined infrastructure and provide basic vital services to over a million Palestinians crowding the area. But not only is life on charity demeaning, there is no chance that such assistance will be forthcoming on a steady basis. There is no precedent for such charity. Even in hunger-stricken sub-Saharan Africa we see signs of aid fatigue.
The second solution is to find work in Israel for multitudes of unemployed Gazans. This is an accessible and easy fix, despite the fact that Israel too suffers from a high rate of unemployment (and yet hungers for manpower in construction and agriculture). In the short run such employment will provide immediate relief from dire poverty, but nevertheless it is a bad solution. Palestinians will meet Israelis in circumstances of extreme inequality — Israelis being the bosses, Gazans being the low-paid manual workers.
In a recent BBC broadcast from Gaza, one reporter seemed astounded by the hateful incitement against Israel after its withdrawal and told of a Palestinianwho had worked in Israel for 20 years and who described the Israelis as subhuman. Manual work in Israel is a sure way to deepen this hatred.
What remains is a third option — that peaceful Gaza will become a supplementary economy to both Israel and Egypt.
The advantages to Israel are clear. Because of the tremendous wage differential between Israel and Gaza, Gaza can easily become the subcontractor of Israeli industry which, nowadays, looks for subcontracting and outsourcing — in Jordan, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. A nonviolent Gaza and a new attitude toward Israel and Israelis can offer many services to Israelis: tourism along its splendid beaches, an international airport that would rid Israelis of the tortuous Terminal 3, garages and mechanical services and even, in the future, civil marriage services that would replace expensive Cyprus.
With regard to Egypt, the talented people of Gaza could, with the help of desalinated water, help Egypt develop the now-barren north Sinai — assuming, of course, that Egypt will understand the need to alleviate, for its own sake, the hardship in Gaza.
Indeed, this solution emulates the very process that enriched the less-developed countries in the European Union, not through charity, but by economically supplementing the rich part of Europe. In this way, Ireland, Portugal and Spain started their route to prosperity and equality.
This solution needs no international aid and will take place of its own accord if common sense defeats the mad hatred of Israel. And this, of course, is a very big if.
Amnon Rubinstein, the founder of the Shinui movement and a former education minister, is dean of the Radzyner School of Law at The Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya.