Barack Obama has hit a wall of Jewish indecision.
The American Jewish Committee survey published Sept. 25 shows the Democratic presidential nominee still hovering around 60 percent among Jewish voters. His big problem: the undecideds.
The senator from Illinois scored 57 percent, compared to 30 percent of respondents who said they would vote for his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). That’s consistent with two other major polls taken since May.
If Obama’s figure holds, he would finish about 15 points behind the 75 percent of the Jewish vote that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won in 2004, according to exit polls.
“He seems to have reached a plateau,” David Singer, the AJC’s research director, said last week. He noted that Jews among the party faithful are strongly supportive of their respective candidates, with 81 percent of Jewish Democrats backing Obama and 84 percent of Jewish Republicans backing McCain.
“In the past, Jewish independents usually in their voting behavior tended to go Democratic” by this point in the campaign, Singer said. “It’s this group that seems to be hesitating.” The AJC survey found an even split among Jewish independents — with 20 percent still undecided.
Part of the explanation is McCain’s popularity among Jews relative to President Bush, who garnered only 24 percent of the Jewish vote in 2004 even after four years of what was widely seen as consistently strong support for Israel. McCain’s appeal combines similar support for Israel with a reputation as a moderate.
A similar poll conducted by the AJC in September 2004, showed Kerry at 69 percent and Bush at 24 percent.
Whether Obama can do the same in the time remaining before the election, with twice as many undecideds up for grabs this time around, is a worrying question for Democrats. They say that a Republican campaign depicting Obama as overly sympathetic to Palestinians and as insufficiently confrontational with Iran, as well as an Internet-based campaign falsely depicting Obama as a secret Muslim, has hurt support for the Democrat among Jews.
Matt Brooks, who directs the Republican Jewish Coalition, said his ads in Jewish newspapers in swing states where Jews may make a difference — Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio — have raised substantive questions about Obama.
“This poll is just another data point in an ongoing series of polls that underscore the tremendous problems Barack Obama has among Jewish voters,” Brooks said.
Despite McCain’s relatively stronger showing, 54 percent of respondents disapproved of his choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate.
Mik Moore, who runs JewsVote.org, said those differences would inform his effort to tilt the undecideds toward Obama. “The Sarah Palin choice was unbelievably unpopular. That’s just beginning to sink in and have an impact,” he said.
The AJC poll surveyed 914 Jews over the phone and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Obama earned the support of just 13 percent of Orthodox Jews, compared to 59 of Conservative Jews, 62 percent of Reform Jews and 61 percent of those who identified as “just Jewish.” McCain garnered 78 percent of Orthodox Jews, against 26 percent of Conservative Jews, 27 percent of Reform Jews and 26 percent of those identifying as “just Jewish.”
Obama is doing better among Jewish women (60 percent) than Jewish men (54 percent). For McCain, it’s the opposite: Thirty-five percent of Jewish men said that they support the GOP nominee, compared to 25 percent of Jewish women.
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, in reference to Obama’s consistent 60 percent range, said: “It’s still well in the range that other Democrats before [former President] Clinton have gotten.”