Shortly after the polls closed Feb. 10 in Israel, the Jewish Community Relations Council gathered its members to make sense of a process that is often complex, confusing and mystifying to Americans.
About 50 people attended the late-afternoon event, held at Jewish Community Federation offices in San Francisco. Discussion focused on the election results and their implications for the Mideast peace process, the Israeli economy and U.S.-Israel relations.
Panelists were Akiva Tor, Israel consul general in San Francisco; Uri Bar-Joseph, visiting professor of Israel Studies at San Francisco State University; and Yitzhak Santis, director of the JCRC’s Middle East Project.
“We have possibly an unprecedented situation,” Tor said, explaining that the election marks the first time in Israel’s history that the party that won the most seats is not the largest political bloc.
The centrist Kadima, headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, emerged as the largest single party. But the right-wing parliamentary bloc, led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, captured the majority of the Knesset seats.
As of press time Feb. 11, Kadima appeared to have won 28 seats to Likud’s 27, but the right-wing and religious bloc captured 65 seats in the 120-member Knesset. At post-election parties Feb. 10, both sides claimed victory.
“It’s really a problem,” Tor said. “Already this is a crisis of governance, because either side can say the election was stolen from the other.”
Israel’s president must designate whom should form a government coalition; usually, the leader of the party with the most votes gets the first opportunity. That would be Livni.
However, Israeli law states that the Knesset member with the best chance of success should begin to form a coalition. That’s likely to be Netanyahu.
“I’m sure every Israeli is saying this system is not fit for a country of our quality,” Tor said.
No matter the winner, the results are certain to have a profound effect on the peace process, Bar-Joseph said.
Historically, those who have made the most progress toward peace come from right-wing political parties, Bar-Joseph said. He cited as evidence Menachem Begin’s return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt and Ariel Sharon’s return of the Gaza Strip to Palestinians.
Which means, he said, that Livni’s leadership would stall the peace process, because she would undoubtedly face opposition from right-wing Knesset members if she attempted to remove settlements in the West Bank — a key to the peace process.
Yet “Bibi could do it because he doesn’t have right-wing opposition,” he added. “Tzipi cannot do it. She is ready, but she cannot do it … And the Israeli public and the Palestinians support a comprehensive peace.”
Half of the 90-minute, invitation-only session was dedicated to questions from JCRC members.
Most queries were related to U.S.-Israel relations or to how the elections would impact the peace process.
In response to a question about the viability of a two-state solution, Bar-Joseph pointed out that polls show 80 percent of Gazans want Hamas to recognize Israel.
“That means something, and the leadership on both sides needs to do something,” he said. “Unfortunately, the only place we’re seeing leadership is on the American side.”
When a JCRC member asked the panel why more people or nations don’t see that they stand to gain from a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Santis imagined a situation that would rely on Syria being a catalyst for peace.
“Syria first,” as he called it, would involve creating a peace agreement between Syria and Israel. Such a move could curtail Iraqi support of Hezbollah and weaken Hamas’ influence on Gaza.
But without a cohesive government, it will be difficult to move forward with the peace process, Santis said.
“There is a lack of confidence in the current political constellation, and electoral reform is crying out.”
Martina Knee, who serves as Hadassah’s representative to the JCRC, described the event as “hugely interesting.”
“I had a general idea about the elections, but not in this amount of detail,” she said. “I would have had to read for days, weeks, months to get the depth of perspective I got tonight.”
JTA contributed to this report.