After more than 100 days in office, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has most of Israel and world Jewry still guessing about where his agenda is leading the Jewish state.
But veteran Jerusalem Post news editor Dan Izenberg, who visited San Francisco last week while on a national tour for the American Society for Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, believes Netanyahu will try to gamble on some big stakes.
Israel and the Palestinians will agree to terms of an Israeli army redeployment from the West Bank city of Hebron, Izenberg says, for Netanyahu has decided “that’s not where he’ll fight his fight.”
Instead, Netanyahu will then move to skip over the remainder of the Interim Accords that call for Israel’s pullback from much of the rest of the West Bank — and plunge ahead into Final Status talks over Jerusalem and Palestinian independence.
Netanyahu will try to leverage any further Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank against Palestinian concessions on Jerusalem and a Palestinian state, Izenberg says.
The Israeli premier “wants to use [the Interim Accords] as bargaining chips in the Final Status talks,” says the Toronto-born editor. “The advantage to going ahead to Final Status is that Israel is not obliged in any way to the Palestinians” at that point in negotiations, and Netanyahu “has freedom to maneuver.”
“It takes a certain amount of naiveté to think that he can do that — and I’m talking in understatement,” Izenberg adds. And such a strategy is ” likely to fail.”
Izenberg’s analysis offers a troubling scenario for Mideast peace. For if Netanyahu follows the course that Izenberg predicts, the premier will bring his hardline Likud policies to bear on the most crucial and potentially explosive phase of the peace process.
Should Netanyahu jump to Final Status talks after a Hebron agreement, Izenberg adds, he will oppose the creation of a Palestinian state and reject any Palestinian claim to Jerusalem.
Netanyahu will offer the Palestinians self-rule over civilian matters, Izenberg says. But Netanyahu would seek to restrict any growth in the estimated 30,000-man Palestinian police force, would oppose any entity that could develop a foreign policy and would limit the amount of territory Israel would give away.
The Likud Party would also oppose the evacuation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank — now home to some 150,000 Jews, he adds. Already Netanyahu’s government has pushed ahead with new construction in existing settlements.
“Netanyahu may believe that the best thing is if the Palestinians agree to Israel’s terms,” Izenberg says. “And if not, he’ll let the whole [process] collapse.”
While polls show that a majority of American Jews support continuation of the peace process, Israelis are divided over moving forward with the Oslo Accords. After September’s clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian police that killed some 80 Israelis and Palestinians, polls in Israel showed pro-Netanyahu forces hardened in their opposition to the peace process, while anti-Netanyahu forces dug in their heels.
“You have to understand, the country is split in two,” Izenberg says.
Israel is also increasingly divided between ultrareligious and secular Jews, Izenberg says. Jerusalem is becoming a religious political center, and young secular Israelis are “fleeing” to Tel Aviv and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the ultrareligious are growing more politically powerful in Jerusalem: The ultrareligious Agudath Israel party holds the most seats on the city council, and “the day will come when they will be able to elect not [right-wing Likud Mayor Ehud] Olmert but their own man” to the top city job, Izenberg adds.
Though Netanyahu plans to shift the Oslo Accords in his own direction, Izenberg says, further Israeli-Palestinian battles would accomplish what Oslo opponents want:
“If there were an outburst of violence, then the Oslo peace process is finished,” Izenberg says. “It’s hard to say things like that in the Middle East, but [the peace process] certainly won’t be reopened with this government.”
While Israel may be divided on the peace process, all Israelis agree that the Jewish state must remain strong both militarily and economically, Izenberg adds. American Jews can support Israel through contributing to economic growth by helping institutions such as the Technion, he says.
Netanyahu has long advocated continued investment in Israel’s high-technology industry and in building the private sector, and Izenberg says the prime minister must decide how his political and economic policies will coexist.
“He’s got to make his own accounting.”