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The persistent buildup of U.S. armed might in the Persian Gulf is no mere window-dressing. As a first bid to eliminate Saddam Hussein's regime, voices in the White House and the U.S. defense establishment are calling for a full-scale strike at critical Iraqi warfare manufacturing and storage sites

A Washington source said: "We blundered twice in misreading the signs that nothing less than the destruction of Hussein will rid the entire Middle East of the serious threat of a calamitous war involving chemical weapons and poison gas. We cannot afford to make the same mistake a third time."

The first blunder was made by President Bush, who did not seize Baghdad and replace Saddam in 1991. Believing that the Iraqi army officers would overthrow Saddam after his defeat in the Gulf War and that the Republican guard divisions would lead the revolt, the United States refrained from bombing the Republican guard.

The second mistake was America's misreading of the August 1995 defection of Lt. Gen. Hussein Kamel Hassan, the builder of Iraq's military machine. Hussein Kamel Hassan fled from Baghdad with his brother, Lt. Col. Saddam Kamel Hassan, their two wives (both daughters of the Iraqi dictator) and their families.

Granted asylum in Jordan by King Hussein, Hussein Kamel Hassan was interrogated for months by U.S. officials. Repeatedly, he told the Americans that Saddam was burning with desire to seek revenge against the United States and its allies. He gave precise details of surviving war plans and Iraq's military storage sites.

He warned: "Unless you eliminate Saddam, he will try again to seize Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in order to control the major sources of Middle Eastern oil. With your support I'm ready to set up an opposition government to replace Saddam. He's ruining Iraq and bringing much suffering to the entire population."

The interrogators focused on the most minute details of Iraq's still-formidable war machine. A source told us: "The defector repeatedly switched attention to his main reason for fleeing Iraq: `I'm ready to take over the reins in Baghdad and establish a pro-Western government. But I need active U.S. backing.' Somehow, the thrust of his message was lost somewhere along the line."

Realizing the danger to himself represented by Hussein Kamel Hassan's defection, Saddam sent his son Uday to Amman on a "reconciliation visit." King Hussein ordered that a close watch be kept on the large party of visitors.

It was discovered that they were out to kill the entire group of defectors.

When Hussein Kamel Hassan realized that the Americans were not taking him seriously, he began to waver. His wife and sister-in-law pleaded night and day to be allowed to return to their homeland. His will to resist the pressure was weakened by the arrival of his weeping mother-in-law, Sarjida, who told him Saddam had promised her that he would forgive him and his brother if they would return to Baghdad.

Hussein Kamel Hassan made one last effort to convince the U.S. officials — who were still dealing with him as though he were a minor spy — to decide immediately whether or not to go along with his plans to stop Saddam permanently.

His efforts were to no avail. He warned that if Saddam felt there was weakness in the Western alliance, he would challenge the United States. He also warned that Saddam was surreptitiously building up weapon stocks acquired secretly in Europe, China and North Korea.

Hussein Kamel Hassan realized that his plan to topple Saddam had failed because of a lack of U.S. political will. Given Saddam's personal written guarantees of "no reprisals," the entire entourage returned to Iraq.

Saddam prepared a major welcoming banquet in their honor. At the banquet, his bodyguards, led by Uday, massacred all the males of Hussein Kamel Hassan's Majeed tribe. His two daughters were severely punished.

The danger facing the Western world is that Saddam is determined to become the master of Middle Eastern oil. Although weaker now than he was when he invaded Kuwait, he is convinced that he can topple his neighbor and within days seize the oil wells of Saudi Arabia, too.

He also believes that the French and Russians, wishing to do business with him, will not support efforts to unleash U.S. forces against Iraq.

Today there are people in Washington who are unaware that all of Hussein Kamel Hassan's predictions have come true. Saddam is now flexing his muscles; President Clinton is even weaker than Bush.

There are many bitter recriminations made in the administration that the United States cannot afford to be outwitted and outblinked by Saddam. At the same time, there are cautious voices urging the White House to adopt a policy of "restraint" and "making concessions" to Iraq rather than going it alone.

We cannot know what the president will do. The outcome would dramatically affect not only the Middle East, but also the future and prosperity of the entire Western world.