Israel could be in grave danger if the peace talks fully collapse.
Conventional weapons and even chemical or biological weapons — according to one Mideast specialist — could be used against the Jewish state after negotiators decide to throw in the towel.
“And it could be not only from states in the region, but also from terrorists that aren’t controlled by any government,” added Michael Nacht, one of the experts taking part in the AIPAC Northern California Politics and Policy Conference on Sunday, Sept. 10 in San Francisco.
Nacht, the dean of the Goldman School of Public Policy at U.C. Berkeley, was an assistant director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1994 to 1997.
He led the agency on arms reduction negotiations with Russia, sat next to President Clinton in arms meetings with China and also took part in high-level U.S.-Israel security talks.
Suspecting the peace process will collapse “sooner rather than later,” Nacht will discuss his fears for Israel’s future safety at the all-day conference, which is titled “Israel and America: Where the Peace Process and Campaign 2000 Intersect.”
Nacht is also concerned about Iraq’s stockpile of weapons, especially since international inspectors haven’t checked out the build-up since late 1998.
“Only a few generals in Iraq and Saddam Hussein know for sure what he’s got — and it’s not good news for Israel,” he said.
In addition to Mideast authorities such as Nacht, the public forum at the Westin St. Francis Hotel will feature an array of experts on U.S. politics as well. Organizers predict between 500 and 1,000 people will attend.
“It’s going to be one of the largest gatherings of the Jewish community in the Bay Area for the year,” said Jerry Yanowitz, the forum chief as well as chairman of AIPAC’s Northern California board.
“There has never been anything of this magnitude…in the Bay Area,” he added. “It’s like a mini-AIPAC national conference that goes on in Washington for two or three days per year.”
Elliot Brandt, the director of AIPAC’s Pacific Northwest region, said that the conference couldn’t come at a more ideal time, with the presidential race just starting to sizzle and the peace process trying to avoid a fizzle.
“It’s like the perfect storm, and in between these two massive forces is the pro-Israel community,” he said. “We want people who support Israel from all across the spectrum to turn out. Things are too critical for the entire community to not be at the table.”
AIPAC, which stands for American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is a pro-Israel lobby of some 55,000 members nationwide.
The conference is supported by no fewer than 25 Bay Area synagogues and at least 35 Jewish organizations.
“Hopefully, there will be broad community participation from a wide swath,” Yanowitz said.
Perhaps the most animated session will occur during the noon hour. Over a kosher lunch, Republican commentator Dan Schnur will square off against former Los Angeles Democratic Rep. Mel Levine in “The Pundits’ Predictions for 2000.”
Schnur, who ran the short-lived presidential campaign of Arizona Sen. John McCain, shoots from the lip.
“I have spent my entire adult life spinning for Republican politicians,” he wrote in a recent column in the Los Angeles Times. “Since McCain folded up his tent last spring, I stand by the side of the highway with a sign that says: ‘Will spin for food.'”
Levine was in the news a lot during the recent Democratic National Convention. He even hosted one of the week’s most talked-about parties. A former co-chair of Al Gore’s Middle East advisory committee, he is now considered one of Gore’s closest advisers, especially on Mideast issues.
And like Schnur, he can spin as well.
“No vice president in history has been as involved as Al Gore in foreign policy in general and the pursuit of peace in the Middle East,” Levine said recently. “Al Gore won’t need any on-the-job training.”
Fred Astren, a professor in the Jewish studies department at San Francisco State, will use his Middle East expertise to examine the roles of countries like Jordan and Syria in the region and in the peace process.
“What’s really interesting is that the Arab nations have not really stepped forward to be active participants in the negotiations,” Astren said. “They are not being the champions of the Palestinians; they don’t seem to want to get involved. And why is that?”
To learn more, Astren advises that one attend the conference, which he lauded as very worthwhile.
“A conference like this, that brings together all of these different sponsors, is really good for the community,” he said. “To bring the international questions affecting Israel and Jewry to the local environment is good for both our community and Israel.”