While Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met in Washington to give the peace effort one more try, Israel’s political battlefront was changing on a daily basis.
And the political fallout coupled with President Clinton’s term coming to an end could influence the chance of reviving peace negotiations, analysts say.
Of course that might depend on who is running for prime minister of Israel. Current Prime Minister Ehud Barak is definitely a candidate alongside his opponent, Likud leader Ariel Sharon. But it appears there will be others; it’s just unclear who they will be.
Benjamin Netanyau, who last week announced his candidacy for prime minister, decided Tuesday not to run after the Knesset refused to disband and run for re-election. Could Netanyahu, a former prime minister, change his mind again and decide to run? Sure, observers say.
Meanwhile Shimon Peres, another of Israel’s former prime ministers, said he would likely run in the Feb 6 election. Could he change his mind and with draw? Sure, say political observers, perhaps even this week.
And others are exploring throwing their hat in the ring, including Netanyahu’s former Likud partner, David Levy.
Three or more candidates could force a runoff. According to an election poll released this week, if a runoff occurs, Peres could likely beat both Barak and Sharon.
Until Tuesday, all polls indicated Netanyahu had the best chance of beating Barak and reclaiming the job he had 19 months ago.
His decision that day not to enter the race came only hours after the Knesset passed legislation specifically tailored to enable him to run in the special election for the premiership.
Netanyahu was upset that the Knesset on Monday night defeated legislation to dissolve itself and hold general elections for both a new parliament and prime minister. Wary of facing the same political deadlock Barak has confronted, he had said he would only run for the premiership if the Knesset also were reorganized.
As a result of his decision, Likud officials canceled party primaries scheduled for Tuesday, naming Sharon as its nominee by default.
Commentaries in the Israeli press Monday puzzled over Netanyahu’s decision to pull out of the race.
Netanyahu was a consistent favorite over all other candidates for the premiership in Israeli opinion polls.
The Knesset on Monday removed the legal hurdle to his running, by giving final approval to an amendment — known before it passed as the “Netanyahu bill” — that allows any person to run for prime minister in a special election.
The Israeli law that was amended had stipulated that only sitting Knesset members can run for prime minister in special elections — and Netanyahu resigned from the Knesset after Barak defeated him in May 1999.
Shlomi Yerushalmi, writing in the Israeli daily Ma’ariv, likened Netanyahu to a tornado that blew into Israel, practically carried off the entire political system into the unknown, and then disappeared as quickly as it came.
Chemi Shalev, writing in the same paper, suggested that perhaps Netanyahu simply decided he didn’t feel like running.
Meanwhile, Peres met Tuesday with Yossi Sarid, leader of the dovish Meretz Party, which would likely rally behind Peres should he decide to run.
But Cabinet minister Yossi Beilin, a protege of Peres, has come out sharply against a Peres candidacy, saying it would only split the Labor Party and serve the Likud.
Special elections for prime minister, triggered by Barak’s resignation earlier this month, are to be held Feb. 6.
Some reports quoted observers as saying Peres — who is highly popular abroad but has the reputation of a loser in Israeli politics — was unlikely to run.
They add that his current deliberations are aimed primarily at annoying Barak, who has largely sidelined Peres in the current government.
Furthermore, Peres’ candidacy could be undercut if the U.S.-led peace effort getting under way in Washington this week bears fruit.
Barak’s reelection hopes are pinned on there being progress in the talks.
A significant breakthrough would make it possible to turn the upcoming election into a referendum on peace with the Palestinians, which a majority of Israelis still support.