As secretary of state-appointee, Colin Powell has been overwhelmingly drawing praise from a wide range of Jews on the political scene, from peace process supporters to critics.
Publicly, that is.
Privately, many Jewish leaders are concerned the retired general, reflecting the big-oil background of the new president and vice president, will tilt U.S. policy in the region in favor of oil-producing Arab states.
For a community that is notoriously nervous about incoming secretaries of state — even George Shultz, today venerated by pro-Israel forces, was initially regarded as hostile — the reaction to Saturday’s selection of Powell has been positive.
At a news conference following the announcement of his selection, the Yiddish-speaking nominee briefly addressed the Mideast peace process.
“It is absolutely a given that under a Bush administration, America will remain very much engaged,” he said. “I expect it to be a major priority of mine and of the department. It will be based on the principle that we must always ensure that Israel lives in freedom and in security and peace.”
But at the same time, he continued, “we have to do everything we can to deal with the aspirations of the Palestinians and other nations in the region who have an interest in this.”
On the record, many Jewish leaders said this is precisely the kind of diplomatic formulation expected of an incoming secretary of state.
“Any administration seeking to promote a settlement in the Middle East has to take other elements into account in addition to Israel,” said Jess Hordes, Washington director of the Anti-Defamation League. “We have to wait and see how the new administration and Powell, in particular, balance these elements.”
American University political scientist Amos Perlmutter, who said he has known the Gulf War commander “for years,” predicted Powell’s support for Palestinian aspirations will not translate into backing for Yasser Arafat.
“This is not going to be a good administration for Arafat,” he said. “Right now Arafat is getting ready to make another major mistake; he thinks he can raise an intifada now, and get a better deal with Bush.”
But Powell, Perlmutter said, is unlikely to offer a sympathetic ear. “There’s no love for Arafat by Powell. He’s going to be tough.”
Behind closed doors, though — in addition to the possibility of oil favoritism — some Jewish leaders dropped hints of concern about Powell’s strong focus on the Persian Gulf and an approach to regional conflicts that some see as excessively cautious
Powell is “very sensitive to the concerns and requirements of the Gulf countries,” said a longtime pro-Israel lobbyist, who predicted — but not for attribution — that the Jewish community “will, in the end, find little to be happy about in his nomination. His understanding of Israel as an asset is very much in the context of a number of other vital relationships in the region.”
Others labeled his hesitancy to fight against Iraq during the Gulf War — and in the process to support Israel — as a sign of future reluctance to use American strength to thwart international conflict.
As chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Powell had initially been hesitant to commit American troops to the Middle East.
He viewed Israel more as a hindrance than an ally, according to Morris Amitay, an Israeli activist and former executive director of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby.
Wary of allowing Israel to fight back against Iraqi attacks, the United States urged Israel to allow the United States to fight its battle for it.
And while Powell would later applaud Israel’s “heroic restraint” during the war, Amitay said he got the impression that Powell’s regional priorities lay with protecting the oil supply and maintaining the coalition of Arab states waging war against Iraq.
But Shoshana Bryen, special projects director of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, contended that “every secretary of state has to nod toward the oil-producing states. They have to do that as long as we want to keep heating our homes and driving our cars.”
Furthermore, Powell “has always liked Israel, even though he will have to account for a variety of concerns,” she said. “On balance, his program and his views will be good for Israel.”
Other analysts say Powell will generally take pro-Israel positions but warn that his ability to shape policy in the region will depend on his position relative to the other two stars in the Bush foreign policy constellation — Condoleezza Rice, the president-elect’s choice as national security adviser, and the incoming vice president, Dick Cheney.
Cheney, many predicted with concern, will be unusually involved in the new administration’s foreign policy; some foresee a tug of war for influence between Cheney and Powell, with Rice playing more of a supporting role.
And some Jewish leaders worry that both Powell and Rice will give short shrift to the international human rights agenda.
“Clinton and his two secretaries of state gave unprecedented attention to protecting the rights of Jews in the former Soviet Union,” said an official with a Jewish human rights group. “Powell, who views the world more through a military and strategic lens, will not give human rights the same emphasis.”
But the critics were a distinct minority in Jewish board rooms this week, reflecting both genuine admiration for the former Joint Chiefs chairman and a desire by Jewish leaders to say nothing that would impede their access to the man about to become the nation’s top diplomat.
“I have no reservations about him,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. “He is a man of experience who appreciates America’s role — and understands America’s limitations.”
Foxman referred to Powell’s early days in the Bronx.
“He grew up in a Jewish environment; he continues to feel good about those days, and his time at City College, when he was surrounded by a generation of Jewish students who have gone on to greater achievements. Many of them are still his friends.”
As chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Powell worked closely with Israeli military leaders, he said — including Ehud Barak, his opposite number as Israel’s chief of staff.
“Military people who have had experience with the IDF come away with a sense of appreciation of Israel’s value as an ally to the United States,” he said. “Powell has had those contacts and that kind of appreciation.”
But Foxman agreed that there will be jarring shifts in emphasis as the new administration reevaluates U.S. policy in the region.
“There will always be a tug of war to find the proper balance in U.S. Middle East policy. Israel policy never plays alone; it has to be seen in the context of the broader region.”
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