jerusalem | Israeli euphoria over a deal to free a soldier held for five years by Hamas gave way this week to growing anxiety that the swap for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of them convicted of murder, could lead to new violence.
When Israelis first got word Oct. 11 of the deal to free Sgt. Gilad Shalit, they erupted in spontaneous celebrations. But that joy was tempered when they learned that about 300 Palestinians convicted of killing Israelis would be among the 1,027 released in exchange.
“If many terrorists are released in this deal, it will be an immense incentive to kill Israelis and to carry out further abductions,” said Israeli Cabinet minister Uzi Landau, who was in the minority of a 26-3 vote by the Cabinet to approve the swap. “This deal will be a huge victory for terror. It will be a blow to Israel’s security and deterrent capability.”
Hawkish opposition groups warned of a new violent Palestinian uprising led by those released.
The Syrian-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal pledged Oct. 11 that those released “will return to … the national struggle,” a comment that stoked Israeli fears that they may pay a heavy price for the deal.
In the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, where Shalit is believed to be held, militants went even further, threatening to capture more Israeli soldiers.
“Gilad Shalit won’t be the last [soldier], as long as the occupation holds Palestinian prisoners,” said Abu Obeida, spokesman for Hamas’ military wing.
Palestinians say Israel holds about 8,000 Palestinian prisoners, while Israel says it has about 5,000.
As of press deadline, the final details of the deal were still being ironed out. An Israeli official said the exchange would likely not take place before Tuesday, Oct. 18. Under Israeli law, the list of prisoners to be freed must be posted publicly, beginning a 48-hour period for the public to file legal challenges.
The list of prisoners — 479, according to JTA — to be released in the first phase of the exchange will be posted on a website on Sunday, Oct. 16, and a public phone number will be set up, the Justice Ministry stated.
Among those 479, 279 were given life sentences, Ynetnews reported. JTA reported that more than 200 will not be allowed to return to their homes in the West Bank; most will be deported to the Gaza Strip.
Both Israel and Hamas credited Egypt with brokering the deal, an important milestone for that country’s new military rulers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also thanked Germany for its help in brokering the deal.
Shalit was captured more than five years ago in a cross-border raid from Gaza, and his plight has been the focus of Jews both in Israel and the diaspora. Throughout his captivity, Hamas refused to allow the Red Cross to visit him and released only a brief audio recording and videotaped statement confirming that he was alive.
Hamas said Shalit’s captors had informed the soldier he is to be released shortly.
The soldier’s father, Noam, has become a well-known public figure by pushing for his son’s freedom. Following the vote, he announced that he was taking down the protest tent erected outside Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem and heading back to his home in northern Israel. First, though, the family met with Israeli President Shimon Peres.
Peres commended Netanyahu’s “bold decision,” saying that Israel had fulfilled its “top moral value — to save one soul in Israel.”
In Gaza, there was a carnival-like atmosphere with Palestinians flooding the streets to celebrate the deal, as the plight of prisoners is equally emotional among Palestinians.
“This is great news, no doubt, and I think that the success of the deal came due to the resilience and unflinching determination of the resistance to see to it that all our demands are met,” said Akram Nimr, a 52-year-old Palestinian shop owner in Gaza who previously served time in an Israeli prison for belonging to the Islamic Jihad militant group.
“Israel wouldn’t agree to free that many prisoners unless it was forced to,” he added.
Hamas officials said that nearly all of the group’s demands had been met.
Yoram Cohen, head of Israel’s Shin Bet security agency, insisted that the deal became viable only after Hamas backed down from some of its key demands, including the release of top militants. He said the most prominent names — including faction leader Ahmed Saadat, uprising leader Marwan Barghouti and Hamas bombmaker Abdullah Barghouti — were not included as part of the deal, a fact confirmed by Hamas officials.
Saadat was convicted of planning the assassination of an Israeli Cabinet minister in 2001. Barghouti was the top local commander of Fatah, the movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, when he was arrested in 2002 and convicted of a role in deadly attacks against Israelis. He is serving multiple life terms but nevertheless is widely touted as a future Palestinian president.
The dilemma in Israel over the charged deal was reflected in newspapers Oct. 12. Alongside beaming headlines reading “Gilad Is Coming Home” and “Homeward Bound” were columns warning of dire consequences.
Ben Caspit, a columnist for the Israeli daily Ma’ariv, wrote: “Yesterday was an evening of capitulation, an evening in which Israel got down on its knees in front of Hamas, an evening in which Israeli staying power failed, and faintheartedness overcame the toughness that is required in our neighborhood.”
Nahum Barnea, the senior commentator for Ynetnews, wrote that Israel has no choice but to agree. He wrote: “The price is excessive, the risks are great and the precedent is displeasing. But a state that for five years was unable to rescue a soldier from captivity by other means has no choice but to pay the price. The alternative — to let him die in captivity — is unacceptable. It does not meet the minimum conditions of the Israeli tribe.”
Most Israelis expressed support for the deal, but also had concern about the possibility of a new wave of terrorism in Israel. But Israeli intelligence experts rejected the notion that terrorism will increase.
“From past experience, most prisoners who have been in jail for many years do not return to terrorism,” said Meir Elran, an intelligence expert at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies. “If Hamas wants to carry out suicide bombings, it has plenty of recruits who are younger and better trained.”
It is not exactly clear why the deal was reached this week, although Israeli officials spoke of a “window of opportunity” that could be closing.
A secret channel between Hamas Deputy Foreign Minister Ghazi Hamad and Gershon Baskin, the Israeli co-director of the Israel Palestine Center for Research and Information, a dovish think tank, might have played a role in the deal. Baskin told Israel Radio that he and Hamad had exchanged lists of names of Hamas prisoners that could be included in the deal.
The deal could boost the stock of Netanyahu, at least in the short run, and there is some hope in Israel that it somehow could spark renewed peace negotiations. But many analysts are doubtful that either side is willing to make the necessary concessions for that to happen.
For now, many in Israel are wondering about Shalit’s physical and mental state. In five years and four months of captivity, he was allowed no international visitors.
“The video [two years ago] showed he is functioning and speaking, but who knows what has happened to this young man,” Reuven Gal, the former Israel Defense Forces chief psychologist, told Israel Radio. “Gilad was presumably held in physical and emotional isolation, and the result is likely to be serious trauma.”
JTA reporter Linda Gradstein, AP reporter Ibrahim Barzak and Ynetnews.com contributed to this report.