They may have scored a victory at UNESCO, but the Palestinians are running into new obstacles on their push for statehood recognition at the United Nations.
Their primary goal of attaining full U.N. membership has encountered a stumbling block at the Security Council in the form of Bosnia, whose Serbian co-president, Milorad Dodik, appears to have cost the Palestinians a crucial ninth vote.
The Palestinians had secured the backing of China, Russia, Brazil, Lebanon, South Africa and India at the Security Council, and reportedly also had Nigeria and Gabon in their camp, giving them eight votes. Pledging to vote against or to abstain were the United States, Britain, France, Germany and close U.S. allies Colombia and Portugal. Bosnia has announced it will abstain.
A council resolution needs nine votes (and no vetoes) to pass. The U.S. has pledged to veto the resolution, but securing nine votes would have great symbolic importance for the Palestinian cause. An applicant state needs Security Council approval before it can go to the General Assembly, where the 193-nation body casts votes on membership.
Meanwhile, U.N. officials are sending a strong message regarding efforts to get additional U.N. agencies to follow UNESCO’s lead in granting the Palestinians membership: Please stop.
“I believe this is not beneficial for Palestine and not beneficial for anybody,” Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. secretary-general, told the Associated Press.
U.S. laws requiring an automatic cutoff in funds to U.N. agencies that grant statehood recognition to the Palestinians already have threatened massive cuts to UNESCO, the U.N. cultural and scientific agency.
“When an organization is not properly functioning because of a lack of resources, you have to think about the millions and millions of people who are being impacted and affected,” Ban said.
The Palestinians have taken heed. On Nov. 3, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al Malki said the Palestinians would stick to pursuing the Security Council option.
“The backlash that’s coming from UNESCO, including from the secretary-general, made it clear it might be a risky, counterproductive process to go to other agencies,” said Ghaith al Omari, executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine. “So for the time being they’re concentrating on the Security Council.”
Israel and the United States say the only route to statehood for the Palestinians is through direct negotiations. The Palestinians refuse to return to talks until Israel freezes settlement building.
The Palestinians can still bring the case to the General Assembly, where they have the votes to achieve enhanced observer status, equivalent to the Vatican.
The alternative to progress toward statehood could be the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, under pressure from a populace that is fed up with its diplomatic failures, said Gidi Grinstein, president of the Reut Institute, an Israeli strategic policy think tank.
Speaking Nov. 8 in Denver to JACPAC, a pro-Israel political action committee, at a session convened during the Jewish Federations of North America’s annual General Assembly, Grinstein said Israel and the United States should embrace the Palestinian U.N. bid as a means of avoiding what he said would be a disaster.
“Instead of fighting the Palestinian motion in the U.N., embrace it and work for it,” Grinstein said. “There’s a lot of risks on this option, but are there lesser risks with a Palestinian Authority that could implode?”