How much noise does Israel’s leadership have to make to get the Obama administration to say what Israel wants to hear about Iran?
And how much noise is too much and risks precipitating a crisis between Jerusalem and its closest ally?
Some Israeli analysts say that pronounced signals from their country’s leadership in recent days that it is readying for a strike against Iran are less an immediate call to arms than a call for an unequivocal commitment from the Obama administration to take the lead in such an attack, or to come to Israel’s aid if the Israelis go first.
“We are at a serious juncture,” said Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based fellow for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The way I understand it, the Israeli leadership is trying to signal to the administration that unless there is a change of tack on the part of Washington concerning the Iranian nuclear program, Israel may have to decide to make its own military move.”
The signals have included:
• An interview in Haaretz with a top Israeli official, widely believed to be Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who argued that Israel risks more in the short term by not striking than it does by striking.
• The appointment to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet of Avi Dichter, a former head of Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, to bring the home front up to speed
• A series of notices to the Israeli public, including a call to update gas mask equipment and a listing of Tel Aviv underground parking lots that could double as bomb shelters.
• A series of public statements by Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, suggesting that an Israeli strike would reap sufficient rewards to justify it.
A key Israeli fear is that a nuclear Iran would provide an umbrella to hostile forces consolidating their hold along Israel’s borders in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and possibly in Syria and Egypt.
“The idea of these nonstate actors on Israel’s borders which may be controlled by a nuclear Iran is a serious threat, the kind of which Israel has not encountered before,” said Asher Susser, a senior fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Still, Obama administration officials are not yet publicly buying into the rhetoric.
“I don’t believe they’ve made a decision as to whether or not they will go in and attack Iran at this time,” Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters Aug. 15. “The reality is that we still think there is room to continue to negotiate.”
Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the military Joint Chiefs of Staff, said an Israeli strike would have limited effect.
“I may not know about all of their capabilities, but I think that it’s a fair characterization to say that they could delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” Dempsey said.
Such sanguinity may be out of place, Susser said, adding that the notices to the public on homefront preparedness are not feints.
“I don’t think the Israelis are bluffing,” he said. “The people are getting the message.”
The likeliest way to shut down the escalating rhetoric, Susser added, would be for the Obama administration to reassure Israel — and not necessarily in public — that it would convey to Iran that military action is inevitable and not just a possibility if Iran does not stand down.
Netanyahu and Barak would want to hear “a very firm commitment from the United States that it will use force, not anything less,” Susser said. “If the Israelis are convinced that the Americans are not going to take action against Iran, Barak and Netanyahu may very well come to the conclusion that they have to.”
Israelis favor a U.S. lead should it come to military action against Iran, polls show. A poll published last week by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University showed 61 percent of Israelis oppose an Israeli strike without U.S. cooperation.
In a blistering speech to the Knesset, Shaul Mofaz, the leader of the opposition Kadima Party, accused Netanyahu of trying to weigh in on the U.S. elections, undercutting President Obama in favor of Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.
Netanyahu, who has had tense relations with Obama, is seen as close to the Republicans and has a longstanding friendship with Romney.