For years the world has demanded that Iran stand down from its nuclear ambitions. With the agreement reached last week in Geneva between Tehran and six world powers, that result may now be achievable.
But despite jubilation in Iran, there remains deep skepticism, even dread, in Israel, the world Jewish community and other quarters. Many critics believe Iran hoodwinked an all-too-acquiescent West, and predict that the mullahs will never honor any promise to retreat from a nuclear armed Iran.
While the path of peace is preferable to the path of war, we, too, are loath to break out the bubbly just yet.
The deal means an immediate loosening of the sanctions that brought the Tehran regime to its knees, and then to the negotiating table. Under the terms, Iran may now freely export its oil and metals, and can expect additional windfalls as previously frozen assets are unfrozen.
In exchange, Iran has agreed to limit its enrichment of uranium and reduce its stockpile, freeze installation of new centrifuges and open up its nuclear sites to more intrusive inspections.
This all may seem promising on the surface, but there are serious risks involved.
For one, the deal’s central mechanism is a freeze, not an elimination, of Iran’s nuclear program. Neither is Tehran required to dismantle its heavy water reactor in Arak. In addition, though it must reduce its enriched uranium stores, Iran could quickly restock, thanks to the 19,000 centrifuges it already has (10 years ago that number was 164).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led the charge against the deal, calling it “a historic mistake.” An ascendant Iran so rattles other players in the Middle East, even Saudi Arabia is finding common cause with its enemy Israel in the desire to stave off Iranian hegemony.
Not every Western nation is falling into line. Canada for one has said it will not ease its sanctions. And at home, Congress is not fully on board, either, with some members hinting they may try to keep American sanctions in place.
Fortunately, the deal is temporary. After six months, the entire package will be revisited. All parties can use this time to make sure inspections of Iranian facilities are thorough, and that Iran lives up to its promises.
As the Jewish Council for Public Affairs noted, the deal could be a “valuable steppingstone to a final agreement that can serve the long-term security interests of the United States, Israel, the Middle East and the entire international community.”
Experience tells us only constant pressure and vigilance will bring that about.