This story was originally published in the Forward. Click here to get the Forward’s free email newsletters delivered to your inbox.
If the U.S. attack on three sites in Iran truly puts an end to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program with no serious or prolonged repercussions against American troops or civilians, then sign me up for the celebration.
But in ordering the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, chances are President Donald Trump didn’t end a war, he just entered one. And where it goes from here can have dire, unforeseen consequences for America, Israel and American Jews.
Leading up to the Saturday night attack on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, there was a drumbeat of voices calling on the U.S. to “finish the job” — that is, end with its advanced massive bombs what Israel couldn’t complete on its own. But it’s not clear that Iran got the same smug memo. The country has a million active and reserve troops, clandestine agents overseas and a still-healthy arsenal of missiles. which have already been aimed again at Israel wounding dozens Sunday morning.
Sure, Iran might surrender by within days, but not even the president’s own people are planning on that.
“We don’t know how much this is going to get us into something protracted,” a Trump administration official told Politico on Saturday evening.
In other words, this wasn’t one and done. This was one and … war.
I’m not at all sad that Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, for the foreseeable future, may have just evaporated. But it’s way too soon to be elated, or even relieved. “Don’t pat your belly,” goes the Yiddish proverb, “when the fish is still in the stream.”
Anyone who has been awake over the past 25 years knows that wars have a way of getting away from us. Before the U.S. attacked Afghanistan and Iraq our leaders and experts predicted easy victory. The eventual cost in lives and money was astronomical. Even now, 22 years after a war that American and Israeli leaders promised would lead to a safe, stable Iraq, pro-Iran militias there pose one of the greatest threats to U.S. forces.
There’s an additional danger, if the war goes badly, of blowback to Israel and, by extension, the American Jewish community. The responsibility for the decision to bomb Iran was Trump’s and Trump’s alone. But in announcing it, he made clear who his partner was.
“I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu,” he said in his brief remarks announcing the bombing. “We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”
The MAGA supporters who opposed American involvement in the war, the so-called progressives marching with Hamas banners calling for Iran to “burn Tel Aviv to the ground,” and the antisemites who don’t really need an excuse to blame Jews will all latch on to Trump’s words if America gets more deeply involved.
It’s true as Trump pointed out that Iran has in the past attacked American troops and interests — and may again.
“For 40 years,” he said, “Iran has been saying, ‘Death to America,’ ‘Death to Israel.’ ”
But that only begs the question of whether such a massive reaction now was on America’s timeline, or Israel’s?
Does that mean Trump shouldn’t have ordered the strikes? Does that mean Israelis of all political stripes shouldn’t walk around smiling after learning that the enemy who helped fund and plan the Oct. 7, 2023, attack has been severely crippled? Does it mean Iranians who’ve suffered under a brutal, oppressive regime shouldn’t rejoice in such a tremendous blow?
Not necessarily. But on the other side of understandable joy is the realistic expectation that the blow wasn’t final.
When I expressed these concerns about the war to a pro-Israel activist, she said, “But Israel owns the skies over Iran.”
True, I pointed out, but Iran, for all intents and purposes, owns the skies over Israel. Passenger planes are grounded, and missile barrages are constant, upending normal life. Defense experts estimate the war is costing Israel $790 million each day.
America’s entry into the war may indeed “finish the job” — eventually. My fear is that there’s a lot of work, and hardship, ahead until then.