JERUSALEM — As the fragile Israeli-Palestinian peace process inches forward, leaders of both sides are looking to upcoming audiences with President Bush to exert pressure on the other and give the “road map” peace plan some momentum.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian Authority counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, each will seek to persuade the American leader to lean on the other side to move faster — and Bush will be ready to lean on both, Israeli analysts believe.
With domestic criticism growing regarding America’s imbroglio in Iraq, Israeli analysts believe Bush wants progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front to help justify the strike against Saddam Hussein.
If toppling the Iraqi dictator is seen to have paved the way for an Israeli-Palestinian accommodation — and, with it, a better chance of pacifying the Middle East as a whole — the administration can argue that the war was worthwhile, the argument goes.
Bush, therefore, will want to resolve as many of the disputed issues on the table as he can. For the Palestinians, most important are releasing prisoners, dismantling illegal settlement outposts, freezing construction of Israeli settlements and Israel’s West Bank security fence, and easing restrictions on Palestinian civilians.
Israel will ask Bush to demand that the Palestinians dismantle terrorist groups and decommission their weapons.
Most analysts agree that little progress will be made without concerted American intervention. But they note that the road map actually provides for a hands-on approach; in fact, one of the major differences between the failed Oslo process and the road map is the introduction of a third party monitoring system. The meetings with Bush are part of this process.
More importantly, in their strategic thinking, both Abbas and Sharon put a premium on ties with America. Even before he took over as prime minister, Abbas advocated the use of American and international pressure on Israel, rather than terrorism, to achieve Palestinian goals.
Sharon, who is to meet with Bush on Tuesday, sees American support as the key to Israel’s position in the world. He believes that ties with the Bush administration must be carefully nurtured and that Israel should seek prior coordination with Washington whenever appropriate.
In Sharon’s view, it is absolutely vital that the Palestinian issue not be allowed to erode Israel’s ties with Washington.
Abbas reportedly was slated to highlight two key issues in today’s White House meeting: getting more Palestinian prisoners released and stopping construction of the security fence. He will argue that if Israel is really serious about turning over a new leaf, it should release all Palestinian prisoners, even those involved in terror attacks.
On the security fence, Israeli officials believe Abbas hopes to use the issue to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States and get the Bush administration to pressure Israel to stop building it, on the grounds that it takes in large swathes of the West Bank and thus prejudges a final territorial agreement.
Abbas also reportedly will urge Bush to pressure Sharon to put more West Bank cities under Palestinian security control. Indeed, Abbas hopes his high-profile meeting with Bush will itself give him more standing and credibility on the Palestinian street. He also apparently intends to use his American sojourn to win support in Congress, the media and the American Jewish community, and he has scheduled meetings with key figures in all three groups.
According to aides, Sharon’s main goal will be to convince Bush that the Palestinians must be held to their commitments in the fight against terror. Sharon, they say, will suggest linking further prisoner releases to Palestinian dismantling of militia groups and the collection of illegal weapons.
Sharon hopes to deflect American pressure on Israel by releasing a large group of prisoners and dismantling more illegal West Bank settlement outposts before his meeting with Bush.
As for the fence, Sharon will repeat what he told British Prime Minister Tony Blair last week: “I am a simple farmer, and I tell you plainly the fence is only a security obstacle to stop suicide bombers, and not in any way a political border.”