jerusalem | Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation from the Israeli Cabinet may have come too late to scuttle Israel’s planned withdrawal from Gaza and the northern West Bank, but it seems almost certain to change the face of Israeli politics.
Leaving the Finance Ministry just 10 days before the pullout is scheduled to begin, Netanyahu threw down a challenge to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and set in motion a process that could split the ruling Likud Party.
Most pundits are convinced that the move will not derail the Gaza pullout, but it could considerably strengthen the Israeli right in its opposition to further withdrawals from the West Bank.
On the economic front, Netanyahu was widely praised as finance minister for initiating tough policies that led the economy from near collapse to robust growth. But analysts say his resignation is unlikely to lead to any major policy changes or have a lasting economic impact.
As for Netanyahu’s political future, leading pundits see in the move a huge gamble that could vault him into prime minister — or consign him to the far-right margin of Israeli politics.
At a dramatic news conference last week, Netanyahu gave just one reason for his resignation: The withdrawal from Gaza and the northern West Bank will be catastrophic for Israel’s security, he said. Gaza will become a base for Palestinian terrorism and its port will be a conduit for terrorist weapons, while giving away territory with no quid pro quo from the Palestinians will encourage more terrorism, he argued.
“I cannot be party to this,” Netanyahu declared.
His forceful presentation begged a question: Why, if the policy is so dangerous, hadn’t he resigned earlier, when it might have been possible to change things?
Netanyahu replied that he didn’t believe stepping down earlier would have made any difference and that he first wanted to push through his economic reforms.
Most pundits were skeptical. Some suggested that Netanyahu was finding it increasingly difficult to explain to his staunchly right-wing family his continued service in a government whose central policy effort he so strongly opposes.
Others had more political explanations. Netanyahu’s own polls, they said, showed right-wing rebel Uzi Landau winning about 12 to 15 percent of the vote in a Likud leadership race. Those are votes Netanyahu needs if he is to have any chance of unseating Sharon.
His resignation, this theory goes, allows Netanyahu to take over from Landau as leader of the far-right in the Likud and — with those votes added to his own natural, more moderate constituency — win the party leadership.
Some pundits argue that the importance of Netanyahu’s resignation is not Gaza but the rest of the West Bank. With Netanyahu in power or leading the opposition, right-wing settlers are convinced they’ll have a much better chance of holding on to dozens of West Bank settlements that may be targeted in any subsequent round of withdrawals.
More than Netanyahu deciding the outcome of the withdrawal, the outcome of the withdrawal could decide Netanyahu’s political future.