It’s hard not to be moved by scenes from Egypt in recent days, with millions pushing back against President Hosni Mubarak’s repressive government. Yet for those who care about Israel, the chaos on the streets of Cairo may portend dark days ahead for the Jewish state.
For more than 30 years, Israel’s peace deal with Egypt has constituted the cornerstone of regional stability. Cold peace though it may have been, this stability has permitted Israel to thrive economically and bolster civil society as never before.
All that could change should a regime openly hostile to Israel emerge as Egypt’s new power broker. Though the situation remains in flux, many regional experts say no matter who next leads Egypt — whether Islamist or secular — he will likely put a deeper chill on already icy bilateral relations with Israel.
How can they be sure? Despite broad diplomatic, political and military cooperation between Mubarak and Israel, the good will never extended to the Egyptian people. A recent Pew Research Center Poll showed that 59 percent of respondants preferred an Islamist government to a secular one. Twenty percent support al Qaida and 49 percent support Hamas.
A whopping 84 percent stated support for executing anyone who converts out of the Muslim religion.
That adds up to a radicalized citizenry, one likely to prove receptive to overtures from the Muslim Brotherhood. Should that viciously anti-Semitic entity come to power, all would change for the worse in the Middle East.
As we editorialized last week, this trend has already begun in Lebanon and Turkey. The thought of radical fundamentalist Muslim governments calling the shots in Beirut, Ankara, Gaza and Cairo, with a nuclear Iran looming over the horizon, is truly Israel’s worst nightmare.
Worst-case scenarios come easily to mind during times of unrest.
But we should remember that Egypt is not Iran. It has long had strong ties with the West, and may not wish to dissolve those ties, no matter who ends up in power. Even a hostile Egypt would likely be in no rush to wage war against an Israel far mightier than the one it faced in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Not to mention the $2 billion in economic and military aid the United States gives Egypt that would be at risk should the regime turn hostile.
For now, like the rest of the world, we watch and wait. Perhaps the Egyptian people, finally able to savor true democracy, will chose a path of openness and regional peace. Perhaps Israel will skillfully navigate these choppy political waters.
No matter what, as always, we stand with Israel.