The last year has seen the White House emptied of people who have a deep personal knowledge of the Israeli situation and who care about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
At first it was the much-publicized resignation of former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who was involved in every significant detail of the White House’s Israel agenda.
Then David Axelrod, top political adviser to President Barack Obama, left for greener pastures, and last summer, Dan Shapiro chose to become U.S. ambassador to Israel rather than taking the position of White House Middle East desk chief.
If that was not enough, next month Dennis Ross, Obama’s senior adviser on the Middle East, will be leaving office. Ross’ White House exit has barely raised a murmur in Israel even though it is one of the biggest losses to the U.S. government as far as relations with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are concerned. It leaves Israel without a reliable contact within the White house.
Emanuel was replaced by Bill Daley, who doesn’t deal with the Israel issue. Axelrod, whose focus was the political significance of relations with Israel, was replaced with David Plouffe, who is busy with managing Obama’s election campaign and has no connection to Israel-Palestinian matters.
Steve Simon now heads the National Security Council’s Middle East desk and was immediately drawn into the Arab Spring uprisings. Shapiro was Obama’s top adviser on Israel and the Middle East during the 2008 presidential race and came with him to the White House. He had access to Obama’s inner circle, access that Simon will have to work hard for.
Many of the best and brightest have collapsed under the pressure after 18 months in the White House. Ross managed to survive for nearly three years.
His resignation is sad news for the Israeli and Palestinian public who seek a peaceful solution in the region. The resignation is also disappointing for the Israeli government, which had an approachable and understanding source who could find swift solutions when problems and misunderstandings arose.
And it comes at a bad time for Obama, who needs Ross during the election year as a credible advocate among American Jews. It would seem that Ross does not see this as a sufficient reason to continue in his thankless job 24/7.
Ross often found himself in the minority opinion. He believed in small steps and not in connecting any U.S. strike against Iran to Israeli concessions on the settlements. He was opposed to exerting public pressure on Israel to halt settlement construction, a move special Middle East envoy George Mitchell favored.
Ross believed in the policy of exhibiting soft diplomacy in public, making progress behind the scenes, while at the same time understanding the political difficulties faced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government.
A source within Washington said that Ross understands Israel in high definition and is irreplaceable. The source added that while Ross doesn’t always see eye to eye with Israel, there has always been mutual respect and there are very few people who have his experience, knowledge and expertise at a time when the Iran issue is becoming a major issue during an election year.
Aaron David Miller, a Middle East specialist and a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, was Ross’ deputy as Middle East envoy during the Clinton administration. According to Miller, at this stage there was nothing left for Ross to do within the government.
Miller stated that there is no credible peace process, no expectations from Netanyahu or Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to exhibit leadership and no Arab leader willing to step up to the plate. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria will further complicate matters at this stage.
Now that Ross is out of the picture, Miller finds himself on a very short list of State Department alums who are Middle East experts and who might be under consideration by the White House.
The two frontrunners are Dan Kurtzer, who endorsed Obama’s candidacy during the 2008 democratic primaries, and Martin Indyk, a close associate of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. It remains to be seen who will be willing to come in during an election year in which the results are far from clear.