Originally, veteran American diplomat Dennis Ross planned to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in his speech in San Francisco last weekend. But the prospect of a nuclear Iran caused a change of plans.
Ross, the special Middle East envoy under President Bill Clinton and a former adviser to Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton on a region that included Iran and the Persian Gulf, spoke at a March 4 gala at the Four Seasons Hotel, hosted by the American Technion Society. A Jewish native of Marin County, Ross was on comfortable territory, opening his remarks by offering to use his analytical skills to ponder “how the Warriors could be a good basketball team.”
Quickly, he pivoted to Iran and the talk of a military strike.
Ross brought up the speech President Barack Obama delivered earlier that day at the AIPAC public policy conference in Washington, D.C. Obama, he noted, emphasized “prevention, not containment” when it came to Iran’s drive for nuclear capability.
Ross then outlined why the world cannot live with a nuclear-armed Iran. “This is not like the Soviet Union during the Cold War, when we had a balance of terror,” he said. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons, so will Saudi Arabia,” for the Saudis won’t sit by and let Shia Iran hold a strategic military advantage over the Sunni Muslim world.
And this would spark a domino effect.
“You will have a nuclear-armed Middle East,” Ross said. “And every country will be on a hair trigger because they can’t afford to strike second.”
Until last November, Ross had served as a special assistant to Obama in the National Security Council. Previously, he had been a key negotiator during the Camp David talks under the Clinton administration.
He knows well the players in the Middle East, and still believes diplomacy has a shot at resolving the crisis with Iran — especially since Iran, Ross insisted, is nowhere close to developing a nuclear weapon.
“They have not enriched [uranium] to weapons grade,” Ross said of the Tehran regime. “Inspectors could tell if it were so. You’d have a six-month warning. The prospect that they could surprise us is quite limited.”
Today, Ross noted, because of its bellicose stance, Iran is increasingly isolated internationally. Regionally, the balance of power has shifted against Iran as the Assad regime in Syria — Iran’s main client state in the Arab world — unravels in a bloody civil war.
Factor in what Ross called “crippling sanctions” imposed by the West, and increasing disfavor on the part of Russia and China (two of Iran’s biggest allies), and a military strike might not become necessary.
“Will it work?” he asked. “I can’t tell you. But the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khameni] has to decide: Does a concession to us threaten his hold on power? He’s built an edifice based on hostility to [the United States]. With the right pressures, Iran will look for a way out.”
Israeli decision makers may not wait much longer to see. Ross said Israel “does not contract out; it goes against the Israeli ethos.”
During a Q&A session, an audience member asked Ross if he felt travel to Israel was safe, considering all the talk of war. Ross noted that he and his wife would be in Israel in June.
“Draw your own conclusions,” he said.
Before Ross spoke, American Technion Society national president Joel Rothman updated attendees on the partnership between the Technion–Israel Institute of Technology (arguably the MIT of Israel) and Cornell University. Together they are planning to build an applied science and engineering campus on New York City’s Roosevelt Island.
He also said since 2010, the American Technion Society had raised $175 million in support of the university, exceeding its fundraising goals.