The Democratic Party may be about to experience a battle for its Jewish soul.
Less than a year before the first primary, the field for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination has turned into a crowd, but two names have special significance for Jewish voters and the politicians who woo them: Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) and the Rev. Al Sharpton — the cautious, conservative lawmaker and the rhetorical bomb-thrower.
Sharpton’s presence could trigger the long-predicted reevaluation of the Democrats by many Jewish voters, said Johns Hopkins University political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg — especially if the civil rights leader does better than expected in the polls and primaries.
And since expectations for Sharpton are minimal, any kind of positive showing during the primary season could drive more Jewish voters and contributors into the GOP orbit.
Sharpton “reminds a lot of Jewish voters about what they’ve come to dislike about the Democratic Party,” Ginsberg said. “It will sharpen longstanding concerns.”
But Republicans shouldn’t start celebrating yet, Ginsberg warned. A strong showing by Lieberman, and the prospect of the first major-party nominee for president, could “cement Jewish ties to the Democrats.” Most analysts predict a Lieberman candidacy would draw a record Jewish vote.
But it’s not just the Jews; the Lieberman-Sharpton dynamic is critical for Democratic leaders whose fractious party will face a mostly unified GOP.
“The relationship between Lieberman and his backers, and Sharpton and his backers, may well determine whether the Democratic party remains united for the fall ’04 campaign or suffers grievous wounds that make its victory impossible,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.
On the surface, it’s an unequal contest in every respect. Lieberman starts the race with high national name recognition, a sophisticated fund-raising machine and few negatives.
Last week a Time-CNN poll put Lieberman at the top of the heap, with 16 percent of Democratic votes; Sharpton was at 7 percent. But the civil-rights activist came in ahead of Florida Sen. Bob Graham, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich — all more “mainstream” candidates.
Sharpton has never won an election and has little connection with the party hierarchy. He has huge negatives, the result of high-profile controversies like the Tawana Brawley affair and his actions during the Crown Heights riots in 1991, a particular sore point with Jews.
Images of Sharpton sharing platforms with the other candidates will “put a sharp and clear face on those concerns,” he said; any concessions the party is forced to make to Sharpton will reinforce the growing feeling that the party is more interested in appeasing black voters than holding on to the Jews.
And Sharpton, unlike the frontrunners, doesn’t have to actually win any primaries to hang on.
There are many “ifs” to this scenario. Sharpton could do so poorly in the early primaries that he fades from view, if not from the primary ballots. The recent entry of former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun into the race could split the black vote, hurting Sharpton’s chances in key Southern primaries and in northern cities.
And of course there’s the Lieberman factor; a very strong showing by the veteran senator would offset Sharpton’s negatives among Jewish voters, he said.
But at the very least, Sharpton’s presence in the campaign will shake loose “some Jews who are sitting on the fence, and perhaps a significant number of resources,” he said.
In private, few Democrats believe Sharpton will just fade away. He is the most colorful candidate in a drab lineup; nobody expects him to win the nomination, but there is an almost universal belief he will be successful in attracting just the kind of attention the party doesn’t want as it tries to galvanize black voters without losing Jewish votes and money.
Republicans interested in Jewish outreach are licking their chops over the prospect Sharpton will do well in a few early primaries and thereby tear the party apart and drive Jews to the GOP side of the aisle.
“It remains to be seen what kind of campaign Sharpton runs,” said presidential prognosticator Allan J. Lichtman of American University. “This may be a candidacy that goes nowhere at all, even among black voters; he doesn’t’ have the kind of reputation Jesse Jackson had when he was running for the presidency.”
“What we don’t know yet is whether the push of Sharpton will be greater than the pull of Lieberman for Jewish voters,” he said, adding that the big danger for the Democrats is “if Sharpton is successful getting into the debates. Then the media has to cover him. The other candidates are not that far apart on the issues; the others are bland, so he’ll really stand out. There’s no Hillary in the race.”