Should Republicans win the Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives on Nov. 4, as many observers expect them to do, the political gridlock that has characterized much of President Barack Obama’s term is poised to intensify.
Jewish strategies, however, will remain the same: focus on areas where successes are within reach. These include funding for elder care and resettling refugees; working at the state levels on issues such as poverty relief and advancing gay rights; and keeping the major issues suffering from legislative neglect, such as immigration, alive in the public eye.
An exception is foreign policy, where a GOP win could mean movement on some issues, including Iran sanctions.
With midterm elections less than a month away, here’s a look at what the Jewish community can expect.
Social welfare spending
With gridlock expected, reforms to major programs like Medicare and Medicaid are not anticipated.
William Daroff, director of the Jewish Federations of North America’s Washington office, named as his group’s priorities relatively small-bore issues like increased funding for long-term elderly care, advocacy for the disabled, providing for impoverished Holocaust survivors and preserving current tax deduction rates for charitable giving.
“On those issues there is bipartisan support,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rabbi Steve Gutow, president of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs, which in recent years has expanded its focus on income inequality, said it’s OK to work the margins when the partisan divide makes it impossible to advance bigger issues, and he expects the divide to grow after the next election.
Gutow cited as an example the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, also known as food stamps. Republicans in 2011 started out by proposing $39 billion in cuts, half the program’s budget. JCPA was among the groups that this year helped broker bipartisan agreement to cut SNAP spending by $9 billion over the next decade.
“We look at what’s realistic and go for it,” Gutow said.
Foreign policy
Republican majorities in both houses may mean more stasis on domestic issues but could advance a number of foreign policy issues. Chief among them is the effort by some pro-Israel groups, led by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, to pass new sanctions on Iran that would kick in should nuclear talks collapse.
The Democratic leadership in the Senate, at Obama’s behest, has stymied new sanctions, although enough Democratic senators back the legislation that it would likely have a majority should it come to a vote. Obtaining Democratic support even under a Republican majority would be key for a lobby that is keen to show that its initiatives have the backing of both parties.
“It’s likely that an emboldened Republican presence in Congress will want to pursue that vigorously,” said Eric Fusfield, director of legislative affairs at B’nai B’rith International, a group that has backed the new sanctions.
That does not necessarily mean a confrontation with the White House, Fusfield said. Instead, the majority could spur Obama to reach an agreement with Congress on sanctions.
“There will still need to be a bipartisan consensus,” he said.
Much depends on whether Iran and the major powers meet a Nov. 24 deadline for a deal, Fusfield said.
Obama’s recent pivot toward greater intervention in Syria and Iraq would find a more sympathetic ear in a Republican-majority Congress, said Daniel Runde, director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“You would definitely see the willingness to use the full spectrum of American power,” said Runde, a top foreign aid official under President George W. Bush.
Health care
Obamacare is here to stay, Fusfield said — at least through the 2016 elections.
“Unless the GOP reaches a supermajority of 60, any attempts to repeal Obamacare will not pass the Senate, and even if both chambers will repeal Obamacare, everyone understands the president will veto it,” said Fusfield, who tracks the issue closely in part because B’nai B’rith maintains a network of elderly care homes.
“You may see Republican tweaks,” he added, such as increasing the law’s definition of the workweek from 30 to 40 hours, or removing its tax on medical device sales.
Immigration
On paper, a wholly Republican Congress should see an advance in the most famously deadlocked issue: how to address the more than 11 million living in the country illegally, said Hadar Susskind, the Washington director of Bend the Arc, a social advocacy group.
Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio), the House speaker, has cited differences with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), the Senate majority leader, to explain the House’s failure to act on a bill passed by the Senate in 2013. Having Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the majority seat would do away with that obstruction.
Republicans, while eager to court the Hispanic vote, have resisted outlining a path to citizenship until border security is addressed. Democrats want to fast-track citizenship for undocumented migrants who came as minors.
Don’t bet on a change, though, Susskind said.“They’re spooked by Cantor,” he said, referring to the precipitous fall this year of the former House majority leader, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who lost a primary to a tea party challenger who said Cantor was soft on immigration — even though he had actually blocked the Senate bill from advancing.