It may not be World War III, as some pundits have labeled it, but there’s no doubt that a vast swath of the Middle East has become an international war zone.
And now it’s a battle on two fronts. In addition to the 65-nation U.S.-led coalition, which has been conducting airstrikes against ISIS, Saudi Arabia this week announced a 34-nation Islamic military alliance, formed as “the best response to those who are trying to associate terror and Islam,” according to Turkey’s prime minister.
While it is certainly better to have allies than not in the global battle against terrorism, and while we are heartened to see nations that have the most to lose stepping up to help the West get rid of ISIS, the cautious response of the United States to this new Saudi move is appropriate.
Aaron David Miller, a respected Middle East analyst with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, views the coalition as having mostly “propaganda value,” and he is not alone in that assessment.
For starters, however noble its stated aims, the Saudi venture may have more to do with saving face then crushing Islamic terror. Muslim nations have been criticized for not doing enough when it comes to fighting ISIS, leaving the dirty work to Europe and the United States. Will the Saudi-led coalition members put actual boots on the ground in caliphate territory? They have not yet said.
Of greater concern, the coalition does not include any Shia-majority nations such as Iraq and Iran, two countries that have much to lose should ISIS continue to gain ground. This suggests that Saudi Arabia’s motives may have as much to do with countering Iran’s growing hegemony as with defeating ISIS — an attempt to reassert Sunni control in the areas currently controlled by the Islamic State group.
So far, those in the new alliance are saying the right things. A Jordanian government official said his nation is all in, noting, “This is our war and the Muslims’ war.” The Saudi foreign minister said “nothing is off the table” when it comes to the coalition taking the fight to ISIS.
As Israelis have known for decades, the Middle East is a dangerous neighborhood. Over the years the United States has been drawn into more than one morass there when we misjudged motives and underestimated complexities.
We urge our political and military leaders to keep their eyes wide open and remember the lessons of the past. ISIS must be destroyed, but the war must be waged with maximum forethought.