Jewish Republicans are right when they say more Jews are joining their ranks. But Jewish Democrats also are right when they say more Jews will vote against President Bush than for him.
At least that’s what is claimed in the newly released annual survey of American Jewish opinion commissioned by the American Jewish Committee.
The study says Bush has made serious headway in the Jewish community, and might win 31 percent of the Jewish vote — as compared with 19 percent in 2000.
However, the study also says Democrats Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, Dick Gephardt and John Kerry each would get twice as many Jewish votes as Bush, with Joseph Lieberman doing even better, in a one-on-one matchup.
So which party wins this study, which was compiled after polling 1,000 Jews?
The Democrats say they do. And guess what? So do the Republicans.
The study shows a majority of American Jews, 51 percent, still consider themselves Democrats, compared with 16 percent who are Republicans.
Both parties put a different spin on the poll results, of course. For Republicans, Bush has made tremendous inroads among Jews. But Democrats contend the president remains unpopular with Jews. Who’s right? Well that seems to depend on how you interpret the numbers.
There’s also a question if those numbers still be valid in November. The study merely shows us what would happen if voters went to the polls now.
Nonetheless, the information may be valuable for political strategists of both parties — especially considering that in the last three years there’s been a lot of debate on where the Jewish vote is headed.
But the poll leaves at least one important question dangling. How will independent Jews vote?
The study says an overwhelming 31 percent of U.S. Jews are independent — nearly twice as many as those who identify as Republican. So, even if we knew now how the independents were leaning, it would still be impossible to use that as a gauge for November’s ballot.
Once the Democrats select their nominee, the work of image-makers in both parties will begin. We will be bombarded by television, newspaper and magazine ads making each candidate look like the best thing since matzah ball soup. That’s sure to influence the vote of Jews and non-Jews alike.
While Jews still hold on very strongly to their social values, as the poll points out, they will be examining a lot of other factors before they select their candidate 10 months from now.
The study is a good warm-up event for the battle ahead.
Stay tuned and maybe we will get some hints if the poll has some validity. But don’t bet on it — at least not right now.